Prediction Audit: Hradec Králové II vs Pardubice II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hradec Králové II

Aug 09, 2026 - 08:15

2 1.30

1 1.30

xG Accuracy: 76%

Pardubice II

AI correctly predicted the Hradec Králové II win.

The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Hradec Králové II Hradec Králové II ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Hradec Králové II	35.2%	44.0%	-8.8 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.9%	+4.7 pp	Aligned
Pardubice II	35.2%	31.1%	+4.1 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Hradec Králové II's win probability at 44.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Hradec Králové II win 2–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hradec Králové II. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Hradec Králové II higher (44.0% vs model 35.2%, 8.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Hradec Králové II win 2–1).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 09, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Pardubice II 35.2%
- xG · Hradec Králové II 1.30 — Pardubice II 1.30
Aug 09, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 2.06 · Draw 3.63 · Pardubice II 2.91
- Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 44.0% · Draw 24.9% · Pardubice II 31.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hradec Králové II 2.06 · Draw 3.63 · Pardubice II 2.91
- Implied 1X2 · Hradec Králové II 44.0% · Draw 24.9% · Pardubice II 31.1%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 09, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Hradec Králové II win · 2–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 56/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 00:48 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2959752

Closing Odds 2.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Hradec Králové II win · Hradec Králové II 2–1 Pardubice II

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - CFL B
Fixture: Hradec Králové II vs Pardubice II
Kickoff: 2026-08-09 08:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
xG (showing): Hradec Králové II 1.3 — Pardubice II 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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