Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Dukla Praha II vs Bohemians 1905 II

Prediction Audit: Dukla Praha II vs Bohemians 1905 II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dukla Praha II Dukla Praha II
Sep 27, 2026 - 08:15
2 1.28
2 1.32
xG Accuracy: 68%
Bohemians 1905 II Bohemians 1905 II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Bohemians 1905 II at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bohemians 1905 II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Dukla Praha II higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Dukla Praha II -13.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dukla Praha II 34.2% 47.6% -13.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.9% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Bohemians 1905 II 36.1% 28.5% +7.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Dukla Praha II's win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 13.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Dukla Praha II than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bohemians 1905 II by 13.3 percentage points (49.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dukla Praha II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Bohemians 1905 II 36.1%
    • xG · Dukla Praha II 1.28 — Bohemians 1905 II 1.32
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dukla Praha II 1.90 · Draw 3.78 · Bohemians 1905 II 3.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Dukla Praha II 47.6% · Draw 23.9% · Bohemians 1905 II 28.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dukla Praha II 1.90 · Draw 3.78 · Bohemians 1905 II 3.17
    • Implied 1X2 · Dukla Praha II 47.6% · Draw 23.9% · Bohemians 1905 II 28.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 11/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:51 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10080069

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Dukla Praha II 2–2 Bohemians 1905 II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Dukla Praha II vs Bohemians 1905 II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Dukla Praha II 1.28 — Bohemians 1905 II 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 34.8% · Probability edge: +17.0 pts · Est. EV: +42.4%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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