Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Benešov vs Slavia III

Prediction Audit: Benešov vs Slavia III Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Benešov Benešov
Sep 26, 2026 - 08:15
0 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Slavia III Slavia III

The model missed the final outcome (Slavia III win 0–2).

The model had projected Benešov at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Benešov Slavia III ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Benešov higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Benešov -12.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Benešov 36.1% 48.9% -12.8 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 23.9% +5.7 pp Model Higher
Slavia III 34.2% 27.1% +7.1 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Benešov's win probability at 48.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Slavia III win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Benešov than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Benešov; match finished Slavia III
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Benešov by 12.8 percentage points (48.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Benešov 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Slavia III 34.2%
    • xG · Benešov 1.32 — Slavia III 1.28
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Benešov 1.85 · Draw 3.78 · Slavia III 3.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Benešov 48.9% · Draw 23.9% · Slavia III 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Benešov 1.85 · Draw 3.78 · Slavia III 3.34
    • Implied 1X2 · Benešov 48.9% · Draw 23.9% · Slavia III 27.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slavia III win · 0–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:41 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10077182

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slavia III win · Benešov 0–2 Slavia III
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Benešov vs Slavia III
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Benešov 1.32 — Slavia III 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 37.9% · Probability edge: +13.9 pts · Est. EV: +32.1%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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