Prediction Audit: Povltava FA vs Sparta Praha II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Povltava FA

Sep 06, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.24

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 49%

Sparta Praha II

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Sparta Praha II at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Sparta Praha II Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Povltava FA	32.4%	15.7%	+16.7 pp	Model Edge
Draw	29.6%	17.7%	+11.8 pp	Model Edge
Sparta Praha II	38.0%	66.5%	-28.5 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Sparta Praha II's win probability at 66.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 28.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Sparta Praha II; match finished Draw
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sparta Praha II by 28.5 percentage points (66.5% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Povltava FA 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Sparta Praha II 38.0%
- xG · Povltava FA 1.24 — Sparta Praha II 1.36
Sep 06, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Povltava FA 5.76 · Draw 5.10 · Sparta Praha II 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Povltava FA 15.7% · Draw 17.7% · Sparta Praha II 66.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Povltava FA 5.76 · Draw 5.10 · Sparta Praha II 1.36
- Implied 1X2 · Povltava FA 15.7% · Draw 17.7% · Sparta Praha II 66.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (29 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 07:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6363623

Closing Odds 1.36

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Povltava FA 0–0 Sparta Praha II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 3. liga - CFL A
Fixture: Povltava FA vs Sparta Praha II
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 38.0%
xG (showing): Povltava FA 1.24 — Sparta Praha II 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS No (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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