Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Motorlet Praha vs Aritma Praha

Prediction Audit: Motorlet Praha vs Aritma Praha Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Motorlet Praha Motorlet Praha
Sep 05, 2026 - 08:15
4 1.26
0 1.34
xG Accuracy: 33%
Aritma Praha Aritma Praha

The model missed the final outcome (Motorlet Praha win 4–0).

The model had projected Aritma Praha at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Aritma Praha Motorlet Praha ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Motorlet Praha higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Motorlet Praha -21.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Motorlet Praha 33.3% 54.4% -21.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Model Higher
Aritma Praha 37.1% 21.0% +16.1 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Motorlet Praha's win probability at 54.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 21.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Motorlet Praha win 4–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Aritma Praha by 21.1 percentage points (58.2% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 05, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Motorlet Praha 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Aritma Praha 37.0%
    • xG · Motorlet Praha 1.26 — Aritma Praha 1.34
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Motorlet Praha 1.66 · Draw 3.67 · Aritma Praha 4.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Motorlet Praha 54.4% · Draw 24.6% · Aritma Praha 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 05, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Motorlet Praha 1.66 · Draw 3.67 · Aritma Praha 4.30
    • Implied 1X2 · Motorlet Praha 54.4% · Draw 24.6% · Aritma Praha 21.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 05, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Motorlet Praha win · 4–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 00:59 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6121730

Closing Odds 1.66
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Motorlet Praha win · Motorlet Praha 4–0 Aritma Praha
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Motorlet Praha vs Aritma Praha
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Motorlet Praha 1.26 — Aritma Praha 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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