Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Povltava FA vs Jiskra Domažlice

Prediction Audit: Povltava FA vs Jiskra Domažlice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Povltava FA Povltava FA
Sep 02, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.15
5 1.45
xG Accuracy: 23%
Jiskra Domažlice Jiskra Domažlice

AI correctly predicted the Jiskra Domažlice win.

The match finished 3–5, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Jiskra Domažlice Jiskra Domažlice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jiskra Domažlice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jiskra Domažlice -23.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Povltava FA 28.4% 15.6% +12.7 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.3% 18.2% +11.1 pp Model Edge
Jiskra Domažlice 42.4% 66.2% -23.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Jiskra Domažlice's win probability at 66.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.4%, a difference of 23.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Jiskra Domažlice win 3–5).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Jiskra Domažlice higher (66.2% vs model 42.4%, 23.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Jiskra Domažlice win 3–5).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Povltava FA 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Jiskra Domažlice 42.4%
    • xG · Povltava FA 1.15 — Jiskra Domažlice 1.45
  2. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:50 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Povltava FA 5.76 · Draw 4.95 · Jiskra Domažlice 1.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Povltava FA 15.6% · Draw 18.2% · Jiskra Domažlice 66.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 02, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Povltava FA 5.76 · Draw 4.95 · Jiskra Domažlice 1.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Povltava FA 15.6% · Draw 18.2% · Jiskra Domažlice 66.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jiskra Domažlice win · 3–5
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (24 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4211506

Closing Odds 1.36
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jiskra Domažlice win · Povltava FA 3–5 Jiskra Domažlice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Povltava FA vs Jiskra Domažlice
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-02 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.4% · Draw 29.2% · Away 42.4%
  • xG (showing): Povltava FA 1.15 — Jiskra Domažlice 1.45 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.9%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 53.9% · No 46.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. liga - CFL A Matches Track Povltava FA Next Match Prediction Track Jiskra Domažlice Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Povltava FA & Jiskra Domažlice!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions