Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Jiskra Domažlice vs Benešov

Prediction Audit: Jiskra Domažlice vs Benešov Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Jiskra Domažlice Jiskra Domažlice
Aug 15, 2026 - 13:00
1 1.41
0 1.19
xG Accuracy: 64%
Benešov Benešov

AI correctly predicted the Jiskra Domažlice win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Jiskra Domažlice Jiskra Domažlice ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Jiskra Domažlice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Jiskra Domažlice -26.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Jiskra Domažlice 40.4% 66.9% -26.5 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 18.0% +11.4 pp Model Edge
Benešov 30.1% 15.1% +15.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Jiskra Domažlice's win probability at 66.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 26.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Jiskra Domažlice win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Jiskra Domažlice higher (66.9% vs model 40.4%, 26.5 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Jiskra Domažlice win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Jiskra Domažlice 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Benešov 30.1%
    • xG · Jiskra Domažlice 1.41 — Benešov 1.19
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 12:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Jiskra Domažlice 1.35 · Draw 5.01 · Benešov 5.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Jiskra Domažlice 66.9% · Draw 18.0% · Benešov 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Jiskra Domažlice 1.35 · Draw 5.01 · Benešov 5.98
    • Implied 1X2 · Jiskra Domažlice 66.9% · Draw 18.0% · Benešov 15.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Jiskra Domažlice win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 50/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (26 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 32/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 01:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3348088

Closing Odds 1.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Jiskra Domažlice win · Jiskra Domažlice 1–0 Benešov
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Jiskra Domažlice vs Benešov
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 13:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Away 30.1%
  • xG (showing): Jiskra Domažlice 1.41 — Benešov 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.2% · No 45.8%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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