Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / Bohemians 1905 II vs Slavia III

Prediction Audit: Bohemians 1905 II vs Slavia III Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Bohemians 1905 II Bohemians 1905 II
Aug 16, 2026 - 08:15
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Slavia III Slavia III

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Bohemians 1905 II at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Bohemians 1905 II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Slavia III higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Slavia III -5.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Bohemians 1905 II 37.1% 36.4% +0.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 24.8% +4.9 pp Aligned
Slavia III 33.3% 38.9% -5.6 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Slavia III's win probability at 38.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Slavia III. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Bohemians 1905 II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Bohemians 1905 II by 5.6 percentage points (42.7% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Bohemians 1905 II 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Slavia III 33.4%
    • xG · Bohemians 1905 II 1.34 — Slavia III 1.26
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 07:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Bohemians 1905 II 2.49 · Draw 3.66 · Slavia III 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Bohemians 1905 II 36.4% · Draw 24.8% · Slavia III 38.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Bohemians 1905 II 2.49 · Draw 3.66 · Slavia III 2.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Bohemians 1905 II 36.4% · Draw 24.8% · Slavia III 38.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 08:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 25/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3599280

Closing Odds 2.33
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Bohemians 1905 II 0–0 Slavia III
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: Bohemians 1905 II vs Slavia III
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 08:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Bohemians 1905 II 1.34 — Slavia III 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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