Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A / České Budějovice vs Admira Praha

Prediction Audit: České Budějovice vs Admira Praha Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

České Budějovice České Budějovice
Aug 09, 2026 - 15:00
5 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 25%
Admira Praha Admira Praha

The model missed the final outcome (České Budějovice win 5–0).

The model had projected Admira Praha at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Admira Praha České Budějovice ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices České Budějovice higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: České Budějovice -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
České Budějovice 34.2% 41.3% -7.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.1% +3.6 pp Aligned
Admira Praha 36.1% 32.6% +3.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates České Budějovice's win probability at 41.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was České Budějovice win 5–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on České Budějovice. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Admira Praha by 7.0 percentage points (43.1% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · České Budějovice 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Admira Praha 36.1%
    • xG · České Budějovice 1.28 — Admira Praha 1.32
  2. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · České Budějovice 2.08 · Draw 3.29 · Admira Praha 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · České Budějovice 41.3% · Draw 26.1% · Admira Praha 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 09, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · České Budějovice 2.08 · Draw 3.29 · Admira Praha 2.63
    • Implied 1X2 · České Budějovice 41.3% · Draw 26.1% · Admira Praha 32.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 09, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result České Budějovice win · 5–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 04, 2026 · 01:21 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2965453

Closing Odds 2.08
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result České Budějovice win · České Budějovice 5–0 Admira Praha
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: 3. liga - CFL A
  • Fixture: České Budějovice vs Admira Praha
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-09 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): České Budějovice 1.28 — Admira Praha 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 3. liga - CFL A Matches Track České Budějovice Next Match Prediction Track Admira Praha Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for České Budějovice & Admira Praha!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
3. liga - CFL A Czech-Republic. 3. liga - CFL A Predictions