The model missed the final outcome (Ústí nad Orlicí win 0–1).
The model had projected Dvůr Králové at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Dvůr Králové Ústí nad Orlicí ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dvůr Králové | 36.1% | 24.6% | +11.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.6% | 19.9% | +9.8 pp | Model Higher |
| Ústí nad Orlicí | 34.2% | 55.5% | -21.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Ústí nad Orlicí's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 21.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Ústí nad Orlicí win 0–1.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Dvůr Králové; match finished Ústí nad Orlicí
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dvůr Králové by 21.3 percentage points (57.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Dvůr Králové 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Ústí nad Orlicí 34.2%
- xG · Dvůr Králové 1.32 — Ústí nad Orlicí 1.28
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Dvůr Králové 3.23 · Draw 4.24 · Ústí nad Orlicí 1.72
- Implied 1X2 · Dvůr Králové 27.5% · Draw 20.9% · Ústí nad Orlicí 51.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Dvůr Králové 3.61 · Draw 4.47 · Ústí nad Orlicí 1.60
- Implied 1X2 · Dvůr Králové 24.6% · Draw 19.9% · Ústí nad Orlicí 55.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Ústí nad Orlicí win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Kosmonosy | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Přepeře | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Turnov | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Trutnov | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Hlinsko | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Kolín | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Vykan | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Dvůr Králové | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Chrudim II | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Letohrad | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 8 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 20 |
| 2 | Kosmonosy | 8 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 19 |
| 3 | Přepeře | 8 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 18 |
| 4 | Turnov | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 17 |
| 6 | Vykan | 8 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hlinsko | 8 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Trutnov | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Kolín | 8 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Chrudim II | 8 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 14 | Letohrad | 8 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 0 |
| 15 | Dvůr Králové | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Svitavy | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
