The model missed the final outcome (Chlumec nad Cidlinou win 2–3).
The model had projected Chrudim II at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Prediction grade
F
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Chrudim II Chlumec nad Cidlinou ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Chrudim II; match finished Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Market lesson
The full-time result was Chlumec nad Cidlinou win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
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Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 07, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Chrudim II 1.34 — Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1.26
-
Sep 12, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Chlumec nad Cidlinou win · 2–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical verdict:
Observe
Historical Decision
No Primary Bet
Outcome
Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability
57/100
· Moderate
- Validation: Pending
Evidence
★★★★★
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation pending
Market Compatibility
100/100
Betting Confidence
59/100
Validation Report
Immutable Snapshot
Closing Odds
Pending
AI Fair Odds
—
CLV
Pending
Final Result
Chlumec nad Cidlinou win · Chrudim II 2–3 Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Prediction
✖ Missed
Decision Grade
F
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kosmonosy | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 |
| 2 | Přepeře | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 24 |
| 3 | Vysoké Mýto | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 23 |
| 4 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 5 | Turnov | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 6 | Trutnov | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 8 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 9 | Hlinsko | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 10 | Kolín | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 12 | Vykan | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | Dvůr Králové | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | Letohrad | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| 16 | Chrudim II | 9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kosmonosy | 10 | 33 | 15 | +18 | 25 |
| 2 | Přepeře | 10 | 32 | 10 | +22 | 24 |
| 3 | Vysoké Mýto | 9 | 29 | 14 | +15 | 23 |
| 4 | Turnov | 10 | 25 | 18 | +7 | 17 |
| 5 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 9 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 20 |
| 6 | Hlinsko | 10 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 13 |
| 7 | Vykan | 10 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 10 |
| 8 | Trutnov | 9 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 16 |
| 9 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 10 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 13 |
| 10 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 9 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 16 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 10 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 11 |
| 12 | Kolín | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Letohrad | 10 | 12 | 37 | -25 | 1 |
| 14 | Chrudim II | 9 | 12 | 39 | -27 | 1 |
| 15 | Dvůr Králové | 9 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Svitavy | 9 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 5 |
