The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Kolín at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Kolín Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kolín | 37.5% | 42.0% | -4.4 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.7% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 32.9% | 34.3% | -1.5 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.7%, a difference of 5.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Kolín; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Kolín by 5.9 percentage points (31.6% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kolín 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Chlumec nad Cidlinou 32.9%
- xG · Kolín 1.35 — Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1.25
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kolín 2.12 · Draw 3.75 · Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2.59
- Implied 1X2 · Kolín 42.0% · Draw 23.7% · Chlumec nad Cidlinou 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Kolín 2.12 · Draw 3.75 · Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2.59
- Implied 1X2 · Kolín 42.0% · Draw 23.7% · Chlumec nad Cidlinou 34.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 16, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Kosmonosy | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Přepeře | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 4 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Turnov | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Trutnov | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Hlinsko | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Kolín | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | Vykan | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 11 | Dvůr Králové | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 13 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Chrudim II | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Letohrad | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 8 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 20 |
| 2 | Kosmonosy | 8 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 19 |
| 3 | Přepeře | 8 | 24 | 9 | +15 | 18 |
| 4 | Turnov | 8 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 13 |
| 5 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 17 |
| 6 | Vykan | 8 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hlinsko | 8 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Trutnov | 8 | 15 | 11 | +4 | 13 |
| 9 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Kolín | 8 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Chrudim II | 8 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 14 | Letohrad | 8 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 0 |
| 15 | Dvůr Králové | 8 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Svitavy | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
