The model missed the final outcome (Hlinsko win 3–2).
The model had projected Dvůr Králové at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Dvůr Králové Hlinsko ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hlinsko | 29.7% | 44.9% | -15.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 22.4% | +7.0 pp | Model Higher |
| Dvůr Králové | 40.9% | 32.6% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Hlinsko's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 15.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Hlinsko win 3–2.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Hlinsko than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Dvůr Králové; match finished Hlinsko
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Dvůr Králové by 15.2 percentage points (56.1% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hlinsko 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Dvůr Králové 41.0%
- xG · Hlinsko 1.18 — Dvůr Králové 1.42
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 08:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hlinsko 2.00 · Draw 4.00 · Dvůr Králové 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Hlinsko 44.9% · Draw 22.4% · Dvůr Králové 32.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hlinsko 2.00 · Draw 4.00 · Dvůr Králové 2.75
- Implied 1X2 · Hlinsko 44.9% · Draw 22.4% · Dvůr Králové 32.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Hlinsko win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (15 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie C — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 2 | Kosmonosy | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| 3 | Přepeře | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 5 | Hlinsko | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Kolín | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 8 | Turnov | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Vykan | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Trutnov | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 12 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 |
| 13 | Dvůr Králové | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 14 | Svitavy | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Chrudim II | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 16 | Letohrad | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vysoké Mýto | 8 | 27 | 14 | +13 | 20 |
| 2 | Kosmonosy | 8 | 26 | 12 | +14 | 19 |
| 3 | Přepeře | 7 | 24 | 8 | +16 | 18 |
| 4 | Ústí nad Orlicí | 8 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 17 |
| 5 | Turnov | 7 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Vykan | 8 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 | Hlinsko | 8 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Chlumec nad Cidlinou | 8 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
| 9 | Slavia Hradec Králové | 8 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 10 |
| 10 | Kolín | 7 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Trutnov | 7 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 10 |
| 12 | Spartak Police n/Metují | 8 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 9 |
| 13 | Chrudim II | 8 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 14 | Letohrad | 8 | 10 | 31 | -21 | 0 |
| 15 | Dvůr Králové | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 16 | Svitavy | 7 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
