Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie B / Ústí nad Labem II vs Újezd Praha 4

Prediction Audit: Ústí nad Labem II vs Újezd Praha 4 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ústí nad Labem II Ústí nad Labem II
Sep 26, 2026 - 08:30
1 1.31
1 1.29
xG Accuracy: 85%
Újezd Praha 4 Újezd Praha 4

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Ústí nad Labem II at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Ústí nad Labem II Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Ústí nad Labem II; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 21, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Ústí nad Labem II 1.31 — Újezd Praha 4 1.29
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 08:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:42 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10077372

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Ústí nad Labem II 1–1 Újezd Praha 4
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie B
  • Fixture: Ústí nad Labem II vs Újezd Praha 4
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 08:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Ústí nad Labem II 1.31 — Újezd Praha 4 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie B 4. liga - Divizie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sokol Hostouň 8 7 0 1 21
2 Chomutov 8 7 0 1 21
3 Baník Sokolov 8 5 0 3 15
4 Rapid Psáry 8 5 0 3 15
5 Újezd Praha 4 8 4 2 2 14
6 Slovan Velvary 8 4 1 3 13
7 Karlovy Vary 8 4 0 4 12
8 Brandýs nad Labem 8 4 0 4 12
9 Tempo Praha 8 3 1 4 10
10 Meteor Praha 8 3 1 4 10
11 Štětí 8 3 1 4 10
12 Slaný 8 2 2 4 8
13 Ostrov 8 2 1 5 7
14 Slavoj Vyšehrad 8 2 1 5 7
15 Hvězda Cheb 8 2 0 6 6
16 Ústí nad Labem II 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sokol Hostouň 8 27 8 +19 21
2 Brandýs nad Labem 8 20 19 +1 12
3 Chomutov 8 18 5 +13 21
4 Baník Sokolov 8 18 8 +10 15
5 Rapid Psáry 8 18 10 +8 15
6 Karlovy Vary 8 18 15 +3 12
7 Slaný 8 16 13 +3 8
8 Újezd Praha 4 8 15 13 +2 14
9 Ostrov 8 14 22 -8 7
10 Hvězda Cheb 8 14 30 -16 6
11 Tempo Praha 8 13 14 -1 10
12 Meteor Praha 8 13 15 -2 10
13 Slovan Velvary 8 13 17 -4 13
14 Slavoj Vyšehrad 8 13 22 -9 7
15 Štětí 8 12 15 -3 10
16 Ústí nad Labem II 8 8 24 -16 5
4. liga - Divizie B Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie B Predictions