Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie B / Tempo Praha vs Újezd Praha 4

Prediction Audit: Tempo Praha vs Újezd Praha 4 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tempo Praha Tempo Praha
Sep 05, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.40
2 1.20
xG Accuracy: 72%
Újezd Praha 4 Újezd Praha 4

The model missed the final outcome (Újezd Praha 4 win 1–2).

The model had projected Tempo Praha at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Tempo Praha Újezd Praha 4 ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Tempo Praha; match finished Újezd Praha 4

Market lesson

The full-time result was Újezd Praha 4 win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 03:24 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Tempo Praha 1.40 — Újezd Praha 4 1.20
  2. Sep 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Újezd Praha 4 win · 1–2
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6157502

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Újezd Praha 4 win · Tempo Praha 1–2 Újezd Praha 4
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie B
  • Fixture: Tempo Praha vs Újezd Praha 4
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-05 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 40.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 30.6%
  • xG (showing): Tempo Praha 1.4 — Újezd Praha 4 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 13, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie B 4. liga - Divizie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sokol Hostouň 10 7 1 2 22
2 Chomutov 10 7 1 2 22
3 Újezd Praha 4 10 6 2 2 20
4 Rapid Psáry 10 6 1 3 19
5 Baník Sokolov 10 6 0 4 18
6 Brandýs nad Labem 10 5 0 5 15
7 Slaný 10 4 2 4 14
8 Tempo Praha 10 4 2 4 14
9 Slovan Velvary 10 4 2 4 14
10 Karlovy Vary 10 4 1 5 13
11 Meteor Praha 9 4 1 4 13
12 Štětí 10 3 3 4 12
13 Ostrov 9 3 1 5 10
14 Slavoj Vyšehrad 10 2 1 7 7
15 Hvězda Cheb 10 2 1 7 7
16 Ústí nad Labem II 10 1 3 6 6
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sokol Hostouň 10 29 11 +18 22
2 Brandýs nad Labem 10 26 26 0 15
3 Rapid Psáry 10 24 12 +12 19
4 Karlovy Vary 10 22 20 +2 13
5 Chomutov 10 21 9 +12 22
6 Baník Sokolov 10 21 13 +8 18
7 Slaný 10 21 13 +8 14
8 Újezd Praha 4 10 21 16 +5 20
9 Tempo Praha 10 19 17 +2 14
10 Slavoj Vyšehrad 10 17 31 -14 7
11 Meteor Praha 9 16 17 -1 13
12 Ostrov 9 16 23 -7 10
13 Štětí 10 15 18 -3 12
14 Hvězda Cheb 10 15 34 -19 7
15 Slovan Velvary 10 14 19 -5 14
16 Ústí nad Labem II 10 8 26 -18 6
4. liga - Divizie B Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie B Predictions