Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie B / Hvězda Cheb vs Slovan Velvary

Prediction Audit: Hvězda Cheb vs Slovan Velvary Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Hvězda Cheb Hvězda Cheb
Aug 21, 2026 - 16:00
3 1.32
4 1.28
xG Accuracy: 30%
Slovan Velvary Slovan Velvary

The model missed the final outcome (Slovan Velvary win 3–4).

The model had projected Hvězda Cheb at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Hvězda Cheb Slovan Velvary ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Slovan Velvary higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Slovan Velvary -13.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Hvězda Cheb 36.1% 26.9% +9.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.1% +4.6 pp Aligned
Slovan Velvary 34.2% 48.1% -13.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Slovan Velvary's win probability at 48.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.2%, a difference of 13.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Slovan Velvary win 3–4.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Slovan Velvary than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Hvězda Cheb; match finished Slovan Velvary

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hvězda Cheb by 13.8 percentage points (49.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 21, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Hvězda Cheb 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Slovan Velvary 34.2%
    • xG · Hvězda Cheb 1.32 — Slovan Velvary 1.28
  2. Aug 21, 2026 · 15:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Hvězda Cheb 3.31 · Draw 3.55 · Slovan Velvary 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Hvězda Cheb 26.9% · Draw 25.1% · Slovan Velvary 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 21, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Hvězda Cheb 3.31 · Draw 3.55 · Slovan Velvary 1.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Hvězda Cheb 26.9% · Draw 25.1% · Slovan Velvary 48.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Slovan Velvary win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 15, 2026 · 01:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4026344

Closing Odds 1.85
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Slovan Velvary win · Hvězda Cheb 3–4 Slovan Velvary
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie B
  • Fixture: Hvězda Cheb vs Slovan Velvary
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-21 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Hvězda Cheb 1.32 — Slovan Velvary 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming 4. liga - Divizie B Matches Track Hvězda Cheb Next Match Prediction Track Slovan Velvary Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Hvězda Cheb & Slovan Velvary!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
4. liga - Divizie B 4. liga - Divizie B — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Sokol Hostouň 8 7 0 1 21
2 Chomutov 8 7 0 1 21
3 Baník Sokolov 8 5 0 3 15
4 Rapid Psáry 8 5 0 3 15
5 Újezd Praha 4 8 4 2 2 14
6 Slovan Velvary 8 4 1 3 13
7 Karlovy Vary 8 4 0 4 12
8 Brandýs nad Labem 8 4 0 4 12
9 Tempo Praha 8 3 1 4 10
10 Meteor Praha 8 3 1 4 10
11 Štětí 8 3 1 4 10
12 Slaný 8 2 2 4 8
13 Ostrov 8 2 1 5 7
14 Slavoj Vyšehrad 8 2 1 5 7
15 Hvězda Cheb 8 2 0 6 6
16 Ústí nad Labem II 8 1 2 5 5
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Sokol Hostouň 8 27 8 +19 21
2 Brandýs nad Labem 8 20 19 +1 12
3 Chomutov 8 18 5 +13 21
4 Baník Sokolov 8 18 8 +10 15
5 Rapid Psáry 8 18 10 +8 15
6 Karlovy Vary 8 18 15 +3 12
7 Slaný 8 16 13 +3 8
8 Újezd Praha 4 8 15 13 +2 14
9 Ostrov 8 14 22 -8 7
10 Hvězda Cheb 8 14 30 -16 6
11 Tempo Praha 8 13 14 -1 10
12 Meteor Praha 8 13 15 -2 10
13 Slovan Velvary 8 13 17 -4 13
14 Slavoj Vyšehrad 8 13 22 -9 7
15 Štětí 8 12 15 -3 10
16 Ústí nad Labem II 8 8 24 -16 5
4. liga - Divizie B Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie B Predictions