The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Spartak Pribram at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Spartak Pribram Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Pribram | 38.0% | 52.1% | -14.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.1% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Hořovicko | 32.4% | 23.8% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Spartak Pribram's win probability at 52.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Spartak Pribram than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- 1X2: model leaned Spartak Pribram; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Spartak Pribram by 14.1 percentage points (52.1% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spartak Pribram 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Hořovicko 32.4%
- xG · Spartak Pribram 1.36 — Hořovicko 1.24
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:20 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Pribram 1.70 · Draw 3.68 · Hořovicko 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Pribram 52.1% · Draw 24.1% · Hořovicko 23.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Pribram 1.70 · Draw 3.68 · Hořovicko 3.73
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Pribram 52.1% · Draw 24.1% · Hořovicko 23.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Křimice | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Spartak Pribram | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Petřín Plzeň | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Komárov | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | Hořovicko | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Táborsko II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Soběslav | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Doubravka | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Strakonice | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Rokycany | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Milevsko | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 15 | Nyrsko | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Pribram | 7 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 | Křimice | 8 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 18 |
| 3 | Petřín Plzeň | 8 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | Spartak Soběslav | 6 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 7 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 | Strakonice | 6 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Hořovicko | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 8 | Táborsko II | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 9 | Doubravka | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Komárov | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Nyrsko | 7 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 0 |
| 13 | Rokycany | 7 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 |
