Predictions / Football / Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie A / Doubravka vs Rokycany

Prediction Audit: Doubravka vs Rokycany Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Doubravka Doubravka
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
0 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 49%
Rokycany Rokycany

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Rokycany at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rokycany Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Rokycany; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 07:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Doubravka 1.27 — Rokycany 1.33
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 07:04 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3391791

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Doubravka 0–0 Rokycany
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 4. liga - Divizie A
  • Fixture: Doubravka vs Rokycany
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Doubravka 1.27 — Rokycany 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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4. liga - Divizie A 4. liga - Divizie A — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Křimice 8 6 0 2 18
2 Spartak Pribram 7 5 2 0 17
3 Petřín Plzeň 8 5 1 2 16
4 Komárov 8 4 4 0 16
5 Hluboka nad Vltavou 7 4 3 0 15
6 Hořovicko 8 4 2 2 14
7 Táborsko II 7 3 2 2 11
8 Spartak Soběslav 6 3 1 2 10
9 Doubravka 8 3 1 4 10
10 Strakonice 6 2 1 3 7
11 Rokycany 7 2 1 4 7
12 Slavoj Český Krumlov 7 2 0 5 6
13 Jiskra Domažlice II 7 1 0 6 3
14 Milevsko 7 0 2 5 2
15 Nyrsko 7 0 0 7 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Spartak Pribram 7 20 7 +13 17
2 Křimice 8 16 9 +7 18
3 Petřín Plzeň 8 16 9 +7 16
4 Spartak Soběslav 6 15 10 +5 10
5 Hluboka nad Vltavou 7 14 9 +5 15
6 Strakonice 6 14 17 -3 7
7 Hořovicko 8 13 9 +4 14
8 Táborsko II 7 13 9 +4 11
9 Doubravka 8 13 14 -1 10
10 Komárov 8 12 7 +5 16
11 Slavoj Český Krumlov 7 11 19 -8 6
12 Nyrsko 7 6 23 -17 0
13 Rokycany 7 5 10 -5 7
14 Jiskra Domažlice II 7 5 12 -7 3
15 Milevsko 7 4 13 -9 2
4. liga - Divizie A Czech-Republic. 4. liga - Divizie A Predictions