The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Hluboka nad Vltavou at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Hluboka nad Vltavou Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hořovicko | 29.7% | 24.8% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.4% | 24.7% | +4.7 pp | Aligned |
| Hluboka nad Vltavou | 40.9% | 50.5% | -9.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Hluboka nad Vltavou's win probability at 50.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Hluboka nad Vltavou. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Hluboka nad Vltavou; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Hluboka nad Vltavou by 9.6 percentage points (50.5% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Hořovicko 29.6% · Draw 29.4% · Hluboka nad Vltavou 41.0%
- xG · Hořovicko 1.18 — Hluboka nad Vltavou 1.42
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 14:35 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Hořovicko 3.58 · Draw 3.59 · Hluboka nad Vltavou 1.76
- Implied 1X2 · Hořovicko 24.8% · Draw 24.7% · Hluboka nad Vltavou 50.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Hořovicko 3.58 · Draw 3.59 · Hluboka nad Vltavou 1.76
- Implied 1X2 · Hořovicko 24.8% · Draw 24.7% · Hluboka nad Vltavou 50.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 08, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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4. liga - Divizie A — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Křimice | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 18 |
| 2 | Spartak Pribram | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 17 |
| 3 | Petřín Plzeň | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Komárov | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| 5 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 6 | Hořovicko | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Táborsko II | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Spartak Soběslav | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 9 | Doubravka | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 10 | Strakonice | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Rokycany | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 12 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 13 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 |
| 14 | Milevsko | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| 15 | Nyrsko | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spartak Pribram | 7 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 17 |
| 2 | Křimice | 8 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 18 |
| 3 | Petřín Plzeň | 8 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 16 |
| 4 | Spartak Soběslav | 6 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hluboka nad Vltavou | 7 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 15 |
| 6 | Strakonice | 6 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 7 |
| 7 | Hořovicko | 8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 14 |
| 8 | Táborsko II | 7 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 11 |
| 9 | Doubravka | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Komárov | 8 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 16 |
| 11 | Slavoj Český Krumlov | 7 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 6 |
| 12 | Nyrsko | 7 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 0 |
| 13 | Rokycany | 7 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
| 14 | Jiskra Domažlice II | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 3 |
| 15 | Milevsko | 7 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 2 |
