AI correctly predicted the Coleraine FC win.
The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Coleraine FC Coleraine FC ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine FC | 44.8% | 80.0% | -35.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 11.8% | +17.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Crusaders FC | 26.2% | 8.2% | +18.0 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Coleraine FC's win probability at 80.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 35.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Coleraine FC win 4–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Coleraine FC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.50 vs 1.10)
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Coleraine FC higher (80.0% vs model 44.8%, 35.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Coleraine FC win 4–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Coleraine FC 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Crusaders FC 26.2%
- xG · Coleraine FC 1.50 — Crusaders FC 1.10
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Coleraine FC 1.18 · Draw 7.98 · Crusaders FC 11.54
- Implied 1X2 · Coleraine FC 80.0% · Draw 11.8% · Crusaders FC 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Coleraine FC 1.18 · Draw 7.98 · Crusaders FC 11.54
- Implied 1X2 · Coleraine FC 80.0% · Draw 11.8% · Crusaders FC 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Coleraine FC win · 4–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premiership — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | Linfield | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 3 | Larne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 |
| 4 | Dungannon Swifts | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Cliftonville FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 6 | Crusaders FC | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Glentoran | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Carrick Rangers | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Ballymena United | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Bangor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Portadown | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 9 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 22 |
| 2 | Crusaders FC | 8 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 3 | Larne | 6 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 16 |
| 4 | Linfield | 9 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 22 |
| 5 | Cliftonville FC | 8 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 |
| 6 | Glentoran | 8 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 10 |
| 7 | Carrick Rangers | 8 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 6 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 8 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 13 |
| 10 | Bangor | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 5 |
| 11 | Limavady United | 7 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Portadown | 8 | 5 | 17 | -12 | 1 |
