Predictions / Football / Austria. Bundesliga / Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach

Prediction Audit: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau
Sep 19, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.43
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
SCR Altach SCR Altach

AI correctly predicted the Austria Lustenau win.

The match finished 2–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 1-2 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices SCR Altach higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: SCR Altach -9.8 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Austria Lustenau 37.6% 29.4% +8.2 pp Model Higher
Draw 28.5% 26.9% +1.6 pp Aligned
SCR Altach 33.9% 43.8% -9.8 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates SCR Altach's win probability at 43.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.9%, a difference of 9.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Austria Lustenau win 2–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on SCR Altach. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Austria Lustenau higher (47.4% vs model 37.6%, 9.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Austria Lustenau win 2–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 19, 2026 · 19:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Austria Lustenau 37.6% · Draw 28.5% · SCR Altach 33.9%
    • xG · Austria Lustenau 1.43 — SCR Altach 1.35
  2. Sep 19, 2026 · 14:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Austria Lustenau 3.29 · Draw 3.60 · SCR Altach 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Austria Lustenau 29.4% · Draw 26.9% · SCR Altach 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Austria Lustenau 3.29 · Draw 3.60 · SCR Altach 2.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Austria Lustenau 29.4% · Draw 26.9% · SCR Altach 43.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 19, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Austria Lustenau win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:47 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8697642

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Austria Lustenau win · Austria Lustenau 2–0 SCR Altach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-19 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Austria Lustenau 1.43 — SCR Altach 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.78)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 18
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 5 2 0 17
3 Lask Linz 7 5 1 1 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 8
6 TSV Hartberg 7 2 2 3 8
7 WSG Wattens 7 2 2 3 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 5
12 SCR Altach 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 21 7 +14 18
2 Lask Linz 7 19 7 +12 16
3 Red Bull Salzburg 7 18 4 +14 17
4 Ried 7 11 12 -1 8
5 TSV Hartberg 7 10 13 -3 8
6 WSG Wattens 7 9 12 -3 8
7 Sturm Graz 7 8 9 -1 11
8 Austria Lustenau 7 8 11 -3 8
9 Austria Vienna 7 7 13 -6 7
10 Wolfsberger AC 7 7 13 -6 5
11 Grazer AK 7 6 16 -10 8
12 SCR Altach 7 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lask Linz 7 11.0 2.3 +8.7 16
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 12.7 4.4 +8.3 17
3 Rapid Vienna 7 10.5 3.9 +6.6 18
4 Sturm Graz 7 7.5 4.8 +2.7 11
5 Ried 7 7.8 8.2 -0.4 8
6 SCR Altach 7 6.1 7.9 -1.8 3
7 WSG Wattens 7 5.6 8.2 -2.6 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 5.8 9.0 -3.2 8
9 Wolfsberger AC 7 4.8 8.6 -3.8 5
10 TSV Hartberg 7 5.9 10.1 -4.2 8
11 Grazer AK 7 5.9 10.2 -4.3 8
12 Austria Vienna 7 2.4 8.5 -6.1 7