Prediction Audit: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sturm Graz

Aug 22, 2026 - 17:30

1 1.69

1 1.29

xG Accuracy: 76%

Austria Lustenau

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Sturm Graz at 50.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Sturm Graz Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 2-0, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Sturm Graz	50.3%	70.2%	-19.9 pp	Market Higher
Draw	25.4%	17.8%	+7.6 pp	Model Higher
Austria Lustenau	24.3%	12.0%	+12.3 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sturm Graz's win probability at 70.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.3%, a difference of 19.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sturm Graz than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
1X2: model leaned Sturm Graz; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sturm Graz by 19.9 percentage points (70.2% vs model 50.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 22, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sturm Graz 50.3% · Draw 25.4% · Austria Lustenau 24.3%
- xG · Sturm Graz 1.69 — Austria Lustenau 1.29
Aug 22, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz 1.37 · Draw 5.39 · Austria Lustenau 8.02
- Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz 70.2% · Draw 17.8% · Austria Lustenau 12.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz 1.37 · Draw 5.39 · Austria Lustenau 8.02
- Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz 70.2% · Draw 17.8% · Austria Lustenau 12.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 22, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (20 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 16, 2026 · 02:54 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-4239436

Closing Odds 1.37

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Sturm Graz 1–1 Austria Lustenau

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Bundesliga
Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau
Kickoff: 2026-08-22 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 50.3% · Draw 25.4% · Away 24.3%
xG (showing): Sturm Graz 1.69 — Austria Lustenau 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.98)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5 (Under 2.5 42.8% · Over 2.5 57.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 60.5% · No 39.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 60.5% · No 39.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (11.1%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	6	0	1	18
2	Red Bull Salzburg	7	5	2	0	17
3	Lask Linz	7	5	1	1	16
4	Sturm Graz	7	3	2	2	11
5	Ried	7	2	2	3	8
6	TSV Hartberg	7	2	2	3	8
7	WSG Wattens	7	2	2	3	8
8	Austria Lustenau	7	2	2	3	8
9	Grazer AK	7	2	2	3	8
10	Austria Vienna	7	2	1	4	7
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	1	2	4	5
12	SCR Altach	7	1	0	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Rapid Vienna	7	21	7	+14	18
2	Lask Linz	7	19	7	+12	16
3	Red Bull Salzburg	7	18	4	+14	17
4	Ried	7	11	12	-1	8
5	TSV Hartberg	7	10	13	-3	8
6	WSG Wattens	7	9	12	-3	8
7	Sturm Graz	7	8	9	-1	11
8	Austria Lustenau	7	8	11	-3	8
9	Austria Vienna	7	7	13	-6	7
10	Wolfsberger AC	7	7	13	-6	5
11	Grazer AK	7	6	16	-10	8
12	SCR Altach	7	5	12	-7	3

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Lask Linz	7	11.0	2.3	+8.7	16
2	Red Bull Salzburg	7	12.7	4.4	+8.3	17
3	Rapid Vienna	7	10.5	3.9	+6.6	18
4	Sturm Graz	7	7.5	4.8	+2.7	11
5	Ried	7	7.8	8.2	-0.4	8
6	SCR Altach	7	6.1	7.9	-1.8	3
7	WSG Wattens	7	5.6	8.2	-2.6	8
8	Austria Lustenau	7	5.8	9.0	-3.2	8
9	Wolfsberger AC	7	4.8	8.6	-3.8	5
10	TSV Hartberg	7	5.9	10.1	-4.2	8
11	Grazer AK	7	5.9	10.2	-4.3	8
12	Austria Vienna	7	2.4	8.5	-6.1	7