Predictions / Football / Austria. Bundesliga / Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach

Prediction Audit: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Aug 15, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.19
0 0.70
xG Accuracy: 78%
SCR Altach SCR Altach

AI correctly predicted the Sturm Graz win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-0, 0-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sturm Graz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sturm Graz -9.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sturm Graz 49.7% 58.9% -9.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 30.7% 23.0% +7.7 pp Model Higher
SCR Altach 19.6% 18.1% +1.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sturm Graz's win probability at 58.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 49.7%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sturm Graz win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sturm Graz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Low-scoring profile materialised (ΣxG 1.89, 1 goals)
  • Sturm Graz attacking xG significantly stronger (1.19 vs 0.70)
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sturm Graz higher (58.9% vs model 49.7%, 9.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sturm Graz win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sturm Graz 49.7% · Draw 30.7% · SCR Altach 19.6%
    • xG · Sturm Graz 1.19 — SCR Altach 0.70
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz 1.63 · Draw 4.18 · SCR Altach 5.37
    • Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz 59.0% · Draw 23.0% · SCR Altach 17.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz 1.64 · Draw 4.19 · SCR Altach 5.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz 58.9% · Draw 23.0% · SCR Altach 18.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sturm Graz win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 54/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 07:13 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3392819

Closing Odds 1.64
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sturm Graz win · Sturm Graz 1–0 SCR Altach
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Sturm Graz 1.19 — SCR Altach 0.7 (total xG ≈ 1.89)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 18
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 5 2 0 17
3 Lask Linz 7 5 1 1 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 8
6 TSV Hartberg 7 2 2 3 8
7 WSG Wattens 7 2 2 3 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 5
12 SCR Altach 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 21 7 +14 18
2 Lask Linz 7 19 7 +12 16
3 Red Bull Salzburg 7 18 4 +14 17
4 Ried 7 11 12 -1 8
5 TSV Hartberg 7 10 13 -3 8
6 WSG Wattens 7 9 12 -3 8
7 Sturm Graz 7 8 9 -1 11
8 Austria Lustenau 7 8 11 -3 8
9 Austria Vienna 7 7 13 -6 7
10 Wolfsberger AC 7 7 13 -6 5
11 Grazer AK 7 6 16 -10 8
12 SCR Altach 7 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lask Linz 7 11.0 2.3 +8.7 16
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 12.7 4.4 +8.3 17
3 Rapid Vienna 7 10.5 3.9 +6.6 18
4 Sturm Graz 7 7.5 4.8 +2.7 11
5 Ried 7 7.8 8.2 -0.4 8
6 SCR Altach 7 6.1 7.9 -1.8 3
7 WSG Wattens 7 5.6 8.2 -2.6 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 5.8 9.0 -3.2 8
9 Wolfsberger AC 7 4.8 8.6 -3.8 5
10 TSV Hartberg 7 5.9 10.1 -4.2 8
11 Grazer AK 7 5.9 10.2 -4.3 8
12 Austria Vienna 7 2.4 8.5 -6.1 7