Predictions / Football / Austria. Bundesliga / Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC

Prediction Audit: Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
2 1.55
1 1.57
xG Accuracy: 76%
Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC

The model missed the final outcome (Austria Lustenau win 2–1).

The model had projected Wolfsberger AC at 39.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wolfsberger AC Austria Lustenau ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 2-1, 0-1, 1-0 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Austria Lustenau considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Austria Lustenau +5.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Austria Lustenau 33.5% 27.9% +5.6 pp Model Higher
Draw 27.1% 28.1% -0.9 pp Aligned
Wolfsberger AC 39.3% 44.0% -4.7 pp Aligned

The statistical model estimates Austria Lustenau's win probability at 33.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 27.9%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Austria Lustenau win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Austria Lustenau.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 3.12) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Wolfsberger AC; match finished Austria Lustenau

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wolfsberger AC by 5.6 percentage points (33.7% vs model 39.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 15, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Austria Lustenau 33.5% · Draw 27.1% · Wolfsberger AC 39.4%
    • xG · Austria Lustenau 1.55 — Wolfsberger AC 1.57
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Austria Lustenau 3.47 · Draw 3.45 · Wolfsberger AC 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Austria Lustenau 27.9% · Draw 28.1% · Wolfsberger AC 44.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 15, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Austria Lustenau 3.47 · Draw 3.45 · Wolfsberger AC 2.20
    • Implied 1X2 · Austria Lustenau 27.9% · Draw 28.1% · Wolfsberger AC 44.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Austria Lustenau win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 71/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3358554

Closing Odds 3.47
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Austria Lustenau win · Austria Lustenau 2–1 Wolfsberger AC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs Wolfsberger AC
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
  • xG (showing): Austria Lustenau 1.55 — Wolfsberger AC 1.57 (total xG ≈ 3.12)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 18
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 5 2 0 17
3 Lask Linz 7 5 1 1 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 8
6 TSV Hartberg 7 2 2 3 8
7 WSG Wattens 7 2 2 3 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 5
12 SCR Altach 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 21 7 +14 18
2 Lask Linz 7 19 7 +12 16
3 Red Bull Salzburg 7 18 4 +14 17
4 Ried 7 11 12 -1 8
5 TSV Hartberg 7 10 13 -3 8
6 WSG Wattens 7 9 12 -3 8
7 Sturm Graz 7 8 9 -1 11
8 Austria Lustenau 7 8 11 -3 8
9 Austria Vienna 7 7 13 -6 7
10 Wolfsberger AC 7 7 13 -6 5
11 Grazer AK 7 6 16 -10 8
12 SCR Altach 7 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lask Linz 7 11.0 2.3 +8.7 16
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 12.7 4.4 +8.3 17
3 Rapid Vienna 7 10.5 3.9 +6.6 18
4 Sturm Graz 7 7.5 4.8 +2.7 11
5 Ried 7 7.8 8.2 -0.4 8
6 SCR Altach 7 6.1 7.9 -1.8 3
7 WSG Wattens 7 5.6 8.2 -2.6 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 5.8 9.0 -3.2 8
9 Wolfsberger AC 7 4.8 8.6 -3.8 5
10 TSV Hartberg 7 5.9 10.1 -4.2 8
11 Grazer AK 7 5.9 10.2 -4.3 8
12 Austria Vienna 7 2.4 8.5 -6.1 7