Predictions / Football / Austria. Bundesliga / Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna

Prediction Audit: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC
Aug 02, 2026 - 15:00
3 0.91
0 1.89
xG Accuracy: 34%
Austria Vienna Austria Vienna

The model missed the final outcome (Wolfsberger AC win 3–0).

The model had projected Austria Vienna at 51.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Austria Vienna Wolfsberger AC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Austria Vienna considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Austria Vienna +19.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wolfsberger AC 22.2% 40.8% -18.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 26.7% 27.4% -0.7 pp Aligned
Austria Vienna 51.1% 31.8% +19.3 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Austria Vienna's win probability at 51.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.8%, a difference of 19.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Wolfsberger AC win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Austria Vienna.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.80) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Austria Vienna; match finished Wolfsberger AC

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Austria Vienna by 19.3 percentage points (31.8% vs model 51.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 19:17 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wolfsberger AC 22.2% · Draw 26.7% · Austria Vienna 51.1%
    • xG · Wolfsberger AC 0.91 — Austria Vienna 1.89
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wolfsberger AC 2.36 · Draw 3.51 · Austria Vienna 3.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Wolfsberger AC 40.8% · Draw 27.4% · Austria Vienna 31.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wolfsberger AC 2.36 · Draw 3.51 · Austria Vienna 3.03
    • Implied 1X2 · Wolfsberger AC 40.8% · Draw 27.4% · Austria Vienna 31.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Wolfsberger AC win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 18/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:35 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1950690

Closing Odds 3.03
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Wolfsberger AC win · Wolfsberger AC 3–0 Austria Vienna
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Vienna
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Wolfsberger AC 0.91 — Austria Vienna 1.89 (total xG ≈ 2.8)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 6 0 1 18
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 5 2 0 17
3 Lask Linz 7 5 1 1 16
4 Sturm Graz 7 3 2 2 11
5 Ried 7 2 2 3 8
6 TSV Hartberg 7 2 2 3 8
7 WSG Wattens 7 2 2 3 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 2 2 3 8
9 Grazer AK 7 2 2 3 8
10 Austria Vienna 7 2 1 4 7
11 Wolfsberger AC 7 1 2 4 5
12 SCR Altach 7 1 0 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rapid Vienna 7 21 7 +14 18
2 Lask Linz 7 19 7 +12 16
3 Red Bull Salzburg 7 18 4 +14 17
4 Ried 7 11 12 -1 8
5 TSV Hartberg 7 10 13 -3 8
6 WSG Wattens 7 9 12 -3 8
7 Sturm Graz 7 8 9 -1 11
8 Austria Lustenau 7 8 11 -3 8
9 Austria Vienna 7 7 13 -6 7
10 Wolfsberger AC 7 7 13 -6 5
11 Grazer AK 7 6 16 -10 8
12 SCR Altach 7 5 12 -7 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Lask Linz 7 11.0 2.3 +8.7 16
2 Red Bull Salzburg 7 12.7 4.4 +8.3 17
3 Rapid Vienna 7 10.5 3.9 +6.6 18
4 Sturm Graz 7 7.5 4.8 +2.7 11
5 Ried 7 7.8 8.2 -0.4 8
6 SCR Altach 7 6.1 7.9 -1.8 3
7 WSG Wattens 7 5.6 8.2 -2.6 8
8 Austria Lustenau 7 5.8 9.0 -3.2 8
9 Wolfsberger AC 7 4.8 8.6 -3.8 5
10 TSV Hartberg 7 5.9 10.1 -4.2 8
11 Grazer AK 7 5.9 10.2 -4.3 8
12 Austria Vienna 7 2.4 8.5 -6.1 7