Prediction Audit: Śląsk Wrocław II vs Hutnik Kraków Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Śląsk Wrocław II

Sep 20, 2026 - 12:30

2 1.29

0 1.31

xG Accuracy: 57%

Hutnik Kraków

The model missed the final outcome (Śląsk Wrocław II win 2–0).

The model had projected Hutnik Kraków at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Hutnik Kraków Śląsk Wrocław II ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Śląsk Wrocław II	34.7%	32.6%	+2.1 pp	Aligned
Draw	29.6%	25.8%	+3.9 pp	Aligned
Hutnik Kraków	35.6%	41.6%	-6.0 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Hutnik Kraków's win probability at 41.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Śląsk Wrocław II win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Hutnik Kraków. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

1X2: model leaned Hutnik Kraków; match finished Śląsk Wrocław II
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Hutnik Kraków by 6.0 percentage points (41.6% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 20, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Śląsk Wrocław II 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Hutnik Kraków 35.6%
- xG · Śląsk Wrocław II 1.29 — Hutnik Kraków 1.31
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Śląsk Wrocław II 2.81 · Draw 3.55 · Hutnik Kraków 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · Śląsk Wrocław II 32.6% · Draw 25.8% · Hutnik Kraków 41.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Śląsk Wrocław II 2.81 · Draw 3.55 · Hutnik Kraków 2.20
- Implied 1X2 · Śląsk Wrocław II 32.6% · Draw 25.8% · Hutnik Kraków 41.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 20, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Śląsk Wrocław II win · 2–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 70/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:23 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8667805

Closing Odds 2.2

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Śląsk Wrocław II win · Śląsk Wrocław II 2–0 Hutnik Kraków

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: II Liga - East
Fixture: Śląsk Wrocław II vs Hutnik Kraków
Kickoff: 2026-09-20 12:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
xG (showing): Śląsk Wrocław II 1.29 — Hutnik Kraków 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 42.1% · Probability edge: +9.7 pts · Est. EV: +19.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	6	2	1	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	5	2	2	17
3	Tychy 71	9	4	5	0	17
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	4	4	1	16
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	5	1	3	16
6	Hutnik Kraków	9	4	3	2	15
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	4	3	2	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	4	2	3	14
9	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	4	2	3	14
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	3	3	3	12
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	3	3	3	12
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	3	1	5	10
13	Avia Świdnik	9	3	1	5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	3	0	6	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	3	0	6	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	1	5	3	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	1	2	6	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	19	10	+9	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	18	9	+9	17
3	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	18	17	+1	14
4	Legia Warszawa II	9	18	17	+1	9
5	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	17	15	+2	12
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	16	11	+5	16
7	Hutnik Kraków	9	16	11	+5	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	16	14	+2	14
9	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	15	17	-2	9
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	14	9	+5	16
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	14	17	-3	10
12	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	13	8	+5	15
13	Tychy 71	9	12	6	+6	17
14	Avia Świdnik	9	12	16	-4	10
15	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	11	15	-4	12
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	10	21	-11	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	9	23	-14	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	6	18	-12	3