Prediction Audit: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Świt Skolwin Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Sep 18, 2026 - 14:30

3 1.36

0 1.24

xG Accuracy: 45%

Świt Skolwin

AI correctly predicted the Rekord Bielsko-Biała win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała Rekord Bielsko-Biała ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Rekord Bielsko-Biała	38.0%	49.2%	-11.2 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.6%	+5.0 pp	Aligned
Świt Skolwin	32.4%	26.2%	+6.2 pp	Model Higher

The closing market estimates Rekord Bielsko-Biała's win probability at 49.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 11.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Rekord Bielsko-Biała win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Rekord Bielsko-Biała than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Rekord Bielsko-Biała higher (49.2% vs model 38.0%, 11.2 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Rekord Bielsko-Biała win 3–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 18, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Świt Skolwin 32.4%
- xG · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.36 — Świt Skolwin 1.24
Sep 18, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.86 · Draw 3.72 · Świt Skolwin 3.50
- Implied 1X2 · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 49.2% · Draw 24.6% · Świt Skolwin 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 18, 2026 · 14:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.86 · Draw 3.72 · Świt Skolwin 3.50
- Implied 1X2 · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 49.2% · Draw 24.6% · Świt Skolwin 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 18, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Rekord Bielsko-Biała win · 3–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (11 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 43/100

Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:25 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8201479

Closing Odds 1.86

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Rekord Bielsko-Biała win · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3–0 Świt Skolwin

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: II Liga - East
Fixture: Rekord Bielsko-Biała vs Świt Skolwin
Kickoff: 2026-09-18 14:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
xG (showing): Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.36 — Świt Skolwin 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 40.5% · Probability edge: +11.4 pts · Est. EV: +24.3%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	6	2	1	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	5	2	2	17
3	Tychy 71	9	4	5	0	17
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	4	4	1	16
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	5	1	3	16
6	Hutnik Kraków	9	4	3	2	15
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	4	3	2	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	4	2	3	14
9	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	4	2	3	14
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	3	3	3	12
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	3	3	3	12
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	3	1	5	10
13	Avia Świdnik	9	3	1	5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	3	0	6	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	3	0	6	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	1	5	3	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	1	2	6	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	19	10	+9	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	18	9	+9	17
3	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	18	17	+1	14
4	Legia Warszawa II	9	18	17	+1	9
5	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	17	15	+2	12
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	16	11	+5	16
7	Hutnik Kraków	9	16	11	+5	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	16	14	+2	14
9	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	15	17	-2	9
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	14	9	+5	16
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	14	17	-3	10
12	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	13	8	+5	15
13	Tychy 71	9	12	6	+6	17
14	Avia Świdnik	9	12	16	-4	10
15	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	11	15	-4	12
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	10	21	-11	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	9	23	-14	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	6	18	-12	3