Prediction Audit: Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Górnik Łęczna

Sep 12, 2026 - 16:00

4 1.26

1 1.34

xG Accuracy: 43%

Legia Warszawa II

The model missed the final outcome (Górnik Łęczna win 4–1).

The model had projected Legia Warszawa II at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Legia Warszawa II Górnik Łęczna ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Górnik Łęczna	33.3%	49.5%	-16.1 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.9%	+4.7 pp	Aligned
Legia Warszawa II	37.1%	25.6%	+11.4 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Górnik Łęczna's win probability at 49.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Górnik Łęczna win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Górnik Łęczna than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Legia Warszawa II by 16.1 percentage points (53.2% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 12, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Górnik Łęczna 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Legia Warszawa II 37.0%
- xG · Górnik Łęczna 1.26 — Legia Warszawa II 1.34
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Górnik Łęczna 1.85 · Draw 3.67 · Legia Warszawa II 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Górnik Łęczna 49.5% · Draw 24.9% · Legia Warszawa II 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 15:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Górnik Łęczna 1.85 · Draw 3.67 · Legia Warszawa II 3.57
- Implied 1X2 · Górnik Łęczna 49.5% · Draw 24.9% · Legia Warszawa II 25.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 12, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Górnik Łęczna win · 4–1
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (16 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 02:29 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7462567

Closing Odds 1.85

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Górnik Łęczna win · Górnik Łęczna 4–1 Legia Warszawa II

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: II Liga - East
Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Legia Warszawa II
Kickoff: 2026-09-12 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Górnik Łęczna 1.26 — Legia Warszawa II 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
Model: 51.8% · Implied: 41.8% · Probability edge: +10.0 pts · Est. EV: +20.2%
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	6	2	1	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	5	2	2	17
3	Tychy 71	9	4	5	0	17
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	4	4	1	16
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	5	1	3	16
6	Hutnik Kraków	9	4	3	2	15
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	4	3	2	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	4	2	3	14
9	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	4	2	3	14
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	3	3	3	12
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	3	3	3	12
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	3	1	5	10
13	Avia Świdnik	9	3	1	5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	3	0	6	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	3	0	6	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	1	5	3	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	1	2	6	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	19	10	+9	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	18	9	+9	17
3	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	18	17	+1	14
4	Legia Warszawa II	9	18	17	+1	9
5	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	17	15	+2	12
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	16	11	+5	16
7	Hutnik Kraków	9	16	11	+5	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	16	14	+2	14
9	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	15	17	-2	9
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	14	9	+5	16
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	14	17	-3	10
12	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	13	8	+5	15
13	Tychy 71	9	12	6	+6	17
14	Avia Świdnik	9	12	16	-4	10
15	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	11	15	-4	12
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	10	21	-11	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	9	23	-14	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	6	18	-12	3