Prediction Audit: Tychy 71 vs Avia Świdnik Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tychy 71

Sep 06, 2026 - 17:30

1 1.32

0 1.28

xG Accuracy: 64%

Avia Świdnik

AI correctly predicted the Tychy 71 win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Tychy 71 Tychy 71 ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Tychy 71	36.1%	55.5%	-19.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	22.4%	+7.2 pp	Model Higher
Avia Świdnik	34.2%	22.0%	+12.2 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Tychy 71's win probability at 55.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 19.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Tychy 71 win 1–0).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Tychy 71 than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Tychy 71 higher (55.5% vs model 36.1%, 19.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Tychy 71 win 1–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tychy 71 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Avia Świdnik 34.2%
- xG · Tychy 71 1.32 — Avia Świdnik 1.28
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tychy 71 1.65 · Draw 4.08 · Avia Świdnik 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Tychy 71 55.5% · Draw 22.4% · Avia Świdnik 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tychy 71 1.65 · Draw 4.08 · Avia Świdnik 4.16
- Implied 1X2 · Tychy 71 55.5% · Draw 22.4% · Avia Świdnik 22.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Tychy 71 win · 1–0
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 53/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (19 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 2/100

Betting Confidence 42/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:09 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6370817

Closing Odds 1.65

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Tychy 71 win · Tychy 71 1–0 Avia Świdnik

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: II Liga - East
Fixture: Tychy 71 vs Avia Świdnik
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
xG (showing): Tychy 71 1.32 — Avia Świdnik 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming II Liga - East Matches Track Tychy 71 Next Match Prediction Track Avia Świdnik Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Tychy 71 & Avia Świdnik!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

II Liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	6	2	1	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	5	2	2	17
3	Tychy 71	9	4	5	0	17
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	4	4	1	16
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	5	1	3	16
6	Hutnik Kraków	9	4	3	2	15
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	4	3	2	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	4	2	3	14
9	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	4	2	3	14
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	3	3	3	12
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	3	3	3	12
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	3	1	5	10
13	Avia Świdnik	9	3	1	5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	3	0	6	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	3	0	6	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	1	5	3	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	1	2	6	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	19	10	+9	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	18	9	+9	17
3	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	18	17	+1	14
4	Legia Warszawa II	9	18	17	+1	9
5	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	17	15	+2	12
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	16	11	+5	16
7	Hutnik Kraków	9	16	11	+5	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	16	14	+2	14
9	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	15	17	-2	9
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	14	9	+5	16
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	14	17	-3	10
12	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	13	8	+5	15
13	Tychy 71	9	12	6	+6	17
14	Avia Świdnik	9	12	16	-4	10
15	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	11	15	-4	12
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	10	21	-11	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	9	23	-14	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	6	18	-12	3