Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Prediction Audit: Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Legia Warszawa II Legia Warszawa II
Sep 06, 2026 - 10:00
1 1.37
2 1.23
xG Accuracy: 73%
Rekord Bielsko-Biała Rekord Bielsko-Biała

The model missed the final outcome (Rekord Bielsko-Biała win 1–2).

The model had projected Legia Warszawa II at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Legia Warszawa II Rekord Bielsko-Biała ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Legia Warszawa II -4.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Legia Warszawa II 38.5% 43.4% -4.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.0% +3.5 pp Aligned
Rekord Bielsko-Biała 31.9% 30.5% +1.4 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Rekord Bielsko-Biała win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Legia Warszawa II; match finished Rekord Bielsko-Biała

Market lesson

The full-time result was Rekord Bielsko-Biała win 1–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Legia Warszawa II 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 31.9%
    • xG · Legia Warszawa II 1.37 — Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.23
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 09:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Legia Warszawa II 2.11 · Draw 3.52 · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Legia Warszawa II 43.4% · Draw 26.0% · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 30.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Legia Warszawa II 2.11 · Draw 3.52 · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 3.00
    • Implied 1X2 · Legia Warszawa II 43.4% · Draw 26.0% · Rekord Bielsko-Biała 30.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Rekord Bielsko-Biała win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 75/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:08 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6322988

Closing Odds 2.11
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Rekord Bielsko-Biała win · Legia Warszawa II 1–2 Rekord Bielsko-Biała
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Legia Warszawa II vs Rekord Bielsko-Biała
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
  • xG (showing): Legia Warszawa II 1.37 — Rekord Bielsko-Biała 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions