Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Avia Świdnik vs Lechia Zielona Góra

Prediction Audit: Avia Świdnik vs Lechia Zielona Góra Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Avia Świdnik Avia Świdnik
Aug 29, 2026 - 12:30
1 1.32
3 1.28
xG Accuracy: 57%
Lechia Zielona Góra Lechia Zielona Góra

The model missed the final outcome (Lechia Zielona Góra win 1–3).

The model had projected Avia Świdnik at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Avia Świdnik Lechia Zielona Góra ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Avia Świdnik higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Avia Świdnik -12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Avia Świdnik 36.1% 48.4% -12.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 25.5% +4.2 pp Aligned
Lechia Zielona Góra 34.2% 26.1% +8.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Avia Świdnik's win probability at 48.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Lechia Zielona Góra win 1–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Avia Świdnik than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Avia Świdnik; match finished Lechia Zielona Góra

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Avia Świdnik by 12.3 percentage points (48.4% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Lechia Zielona Góra 34.2%
    • xG · Avia Świdnik 1.32 — Lechia Zielona Góra 1.28
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Avia Świdnik 1.89 · Draw 3.59 · Lechia Zielona Góra 3.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 48.4% · Draw 25.5% · Lechia Zielona Góra 26.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Avia Świdnik 1.89 · Draw 3.59 · Lechia Zielona Góra 3.51
    • Implied 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 48.4% · Draw 25.5% · Lechia Zielona Góra 26.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Lechia Zielona Góra win · 1–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 38/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5132249

Closing Odds 1.89
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Lechia Zielona Góra win · Avia Świdnik 1–3 Lechia Zielona Góra
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Avia Świdnik vs Lechia Zielona Góra
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Avia Świdnik 1.32 — Lechia Zielona Góra 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions