Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Prediction Audit: Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Znicz Pruszków Znicz Pruszków
Aug 16, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 64%
Olimpia Grudziądz Olimpia Grudziądz

AI correctly predicted the Olimpia Grudziądz win.

The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Olimpia Grudziądz Olimpia Grudziądz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Znicz Pruszków higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Znicz Pruszków -16.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Znicz Pruszków 31.0% 47.1% -16.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.5% 24.4% +5.1 pp Model Higher
Olimpia Grudziądz 39.5% 28.5% +11.0 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Znicz Pruszków's win probability at 47.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 16.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Olimpia Grudziądz win 0–1).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Znicz Pruszków than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Olimpia Grudziądz higher (55.6% vs model 39.5%, 16.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Olimpia Grudziądz win 0–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Znicz Pruszków 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Olimpia Grudziądz 39.5%
    • xG · Znicz Pruszków 1.21 — Olimpia Grudziądz 1.39
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Znicz Pruszków 1.94 · Draw 3.75 · Olimpia Grudziądz 3.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Znicz Pruszków 47.1% · Draw 24.4% · Olimpia Grudziądz 28.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Znicz Pruszków 1.94 · Draw 3.75 · Olimpia Grudziądz 3.21
    • Implied 1X2 · Znicz Pruszków 47.1% · Draw 24.4% · Olimpia Grudziądz 28.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Olimpia Grudziądz win · 0–1
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 6/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 00:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3600324

Closing Odds 1.94
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Olimpia Grudziądz win · Znicz Pruszków 0–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Znicz Pruszków vs Olimpia Grudziądz
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.0% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.5%
  • xG (showing): Znicz Pruszków 1.21 — Olimpia Grudziądz 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions