Prediction Audit: Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Górnik Łęczna

Aug 14, 2026 - 16:00

5 1.26

2 1.34

xG Accuracy: 30%

Podhale Nowy Targ

The model missed the final outcome (Górnik Łęczna win 5–2).

The model had projected Podhale Nowy Targ at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Podhale Nowy Targ Górnik Łęczna ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Górnik Łęczna	33.3%	39.3%	-6.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	26.8%	+2.9 pp	Aligned
Podhale Nowy Targ	37.1%	33.9%	+3.1 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Górnik Łęczna's win probability at 39.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 6.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Górnik Łęczna win 5–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Górnik Łęczna. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
1X2: model leaned Podhale Nowy Targ; match finished Górnik Łęczna

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Podhale Nowy Targ by 6.0 percentage points (43.1% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Górnik Łęczna 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Podhale Nowy Targ 37.0%
- xG · Górnik Łęczna 1.26 — Podhale Nowy Targ 1.34
Aug 14, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Górnik Łęczna 2.33 · Draw 3.42 · Podhale Nowy Targ 2.70
- Implied 1X2 · Górnik Łęczna 39.3% · Draw 26.8% · Podhale Nowy Targ 33.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Górnik Łęczna 2.33 · Draw 3.42 · Podhale Nowy Targ 2.70
- Implied 1X2 · Górnik Łęczna 39.3% · Draw 26.8% · Podhale Nowy Targ 33.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Górnik Łęczna win · 5–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 24/100

Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:22 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3228107

Closing Odds 2.33

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Górnik Łęczna win · Górnik Łęczna 5–2 Podhale Nowy Targ

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: II Liga - East
Fixture: Górnik Łęczna vs Podhale Nowy Targ
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Górnik Łęczna 1.26 — Podhale Nowy Targ 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	6	2	1	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	5	2	2	17
3	Tychy 71	9	4	5	0	17
4	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	4	4	1	16
5	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	5	1	3	16
6	Hutnik Kraków	9	4	3	2	15
7	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	4	3	2	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	4	2	3	14
9	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	4	2	3	14
10	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	3	3	3	12
11	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	3	3	3	12
12	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	3	1	5	10
13	Avia Świdnik	9	3	1	5	10
14	Legia Warszawa II	9	3	0	6	9
15	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	3	0	6	9
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	1	5	3	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	1	2	6	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	0	3	6	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Znicz Pruszków	9	19	10	+9	20
2	Górnik Łęczna	9	18	9	+9	17
3	Podhale Nowy Targ	9	18	17	+1	14
4	Legia Warszawa II	9	18	17	+1	9
5	Lechia Zielona Góra	9	17	15	+2	12
6	Zawisza Bydgoszcz	9	16	11	+5	16
7	Hutnik Kraków	9	16	11	+5	15
8	Chojniczanka Chojnice	9	16	14	+2	14
9	Śląsk Wrocław II	9	15	17	-2	9
10	Rekord Bielsko-Biała	9	14	9	+5	16
11	Stal Stalowa Wola	9	14	17	-3	10
12	Sandecja Nowy Sącz	9	13	8	+5	15
13	Tychy 71	9	12	6	+6	17
14	Avia Świdnik	9	12	16	-4	10
15	Olimpia Grudziądz	9	11	15	-4	12
16	Sokół Kleczew	9	10	21	-11	8
17	Świt Skolwin	9	9	23	-14	5
18	Resovia Rzeszów	9	6	18	-12	3