Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Podhale Nowy Targ vs Hutnik Kraków

Prediction Audit: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Hutnik Kraków Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Podhale Nowy Targ Podhale Nowy Targ
Aug 08, 2026 - 11:00
2 1.30
5 1.30
xG Accuracy: 30%
Hutnik Kraków Hutnik Kraków

The model missed the final outcome (Hutnik Kraków win 2–5).

The model had projected Podhale Nowy Targ at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Podhale Nowy Targ Hutnik Kraków ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Podhale Nowy Targ higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Podhale Nowy Targ -13.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Podhale Nowy Targ 35.2% 48.2% -13.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.1% +2.6 pp Aligned
Hutnik Kraków 35.2% 24.7% +10.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Podhale Nowy Targ's win probability at 48.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.2%, a difference of 13.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Hutnik Kraków win 2–5.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Podhale Nowy Targ than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Podhale Nowy Targ; match finished Hutnik Kraków

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Podhale Nowy Targ by 13.0 percentage points (48.2% vs model 35.2%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 08, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Podhale Nowy Targ 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Hutnik Kraków 35.2%
    • xG · Podhale Nowy Targ 1.30 — Hutnik Kraków 1.30
  2. Aug 08, 2026 · 10:34 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Podhale Nowy Targ 1.90 · Draw 3.38 · Hutnik Kraków 3.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Podhale Nowy Targ 48.2% · Draw 27.1% · Hutnik Kraków 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 08, 2026 · 11:04 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Podhale Nowy Targ 1.90 · Draw 3.38 · Hutnik Kraków 3.70
    • Implied 1X2 · Podhale Nowy Targ 48.2% · Draw 27.1% · Hutnik Kraków 24.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 08, 2026 · 11:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Hutnik Kraków win · 2–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 34/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:16 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2811959

Closing Odds 1.9
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Hutnik Kraków win · Podhale Nowy Targ 2–5 Hutnik Kraków
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Podhale Nowy Targ vs Hutnik Kraków
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-08 11:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Podhale Nowy Targ 1.3 — Hutnik Kraków 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.3%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions