Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Chojniczanka Chojnice

Prediction Audit: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Chojniczanka Chojnice Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sandecja Nowy Sącz Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Aug 02, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.32
0 1.28
xG Accuracy: 44%
Chojniczanka Chojnice Chojniczanka Chojnice

AI correctly predicted the Sandecja Nowy Sącz win.

The match finished 3–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sandecja Nowy Sącz Sandecja Nowy Sącz ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Sandecja Nowy Sącz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sandecja Nowy Sącz -5.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sandecja Nowy Sącz 36.1% 41.4% -5.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.5% +3.2 pp Aligned
Chojniczanka Chojnice 34.2% 32.1% +2.1 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Sandecja Nowy Sącz's win probability at 41.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 5.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sandecja Nowy Sącz win 3–0).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Sandecja Nowy Sącz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sandecja Nowy Sącz higher (41.4% vs model 36.1%, 5.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sandecja Nowy Sącz win 3–0).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Chojniczanka Chojnice 34.2%
    • xG · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1.32 — Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.28
  2. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2.21 · Draw 3.46 · Chojniczanka Chojnice 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 41.4% · Draw 26.5% · Chojniczanka Chojnice 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 2.21 · Draw 3.46 · Chojniczanka Chojnice 2.85
    • Implied 1X2 · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 41.4% · Draw 26.5% · Chojniczanka Chojnice 32.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 02, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Sandecja Nowy Sącz win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 73/100
Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 27, 2026 · 01:46 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1953807

Closing Odds 2.21
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Sandecja Nowy Sącz win · Sandecja Nowy Sącz 3–0 Chojniczanka Chojnice
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Sandecja Nowy Sącz vs Chojniczanka Chojnice
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-02 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sandecja Nowy Sącz 1.32 — Chojniczanka Chojnice 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions