Predictions / Football / Poland. II Liga - East / Avia Świdnik vs Olimpia Grudziądz

Prediction Audit: Avia Świdnik vs Olimpia Grudziądz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Avia Świdnik Avia Świdnik
Jul 26, 2026 - 14:00
4 1.21
1 1.39
xG Accuracy: 42%
Olimpia Grudziądz Olimpia Grudziądz

The model missed the final outcome (Avia Świdnik win 4–1).

The model had projected Olimpia Grudziądz at 40.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Olimpia Grudziądz Avia Świdnik ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Olimpia Grudziądz -2.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Avia Świdnik 30.5% 29.6% +0.9 pp Aligned
Draw 28.8% 27.2% +1.6 pp Aligned
Olimpia Grudziądz 40.7% 43.2% -2.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Avia Świdnik win 4–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Olimpia Grudziądz; match finished Avia Świdnik

Market lesson

The full-time result was Avia Świdnik win 4–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 26, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 30.5% · Draw 28.8% · Olimpia Grudziądz 40.7%
    • xG · Avia Świdnik 1.21 — Olimpia Grudziądz 1.39
  2. Jul 26, 2026 · 13:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Avia Świdnik 3.09 · Draw 3.37 · Olimpia Grudziądz 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 29.6% · Draw 27.2% · Olimpia Grudziądz 43.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Avia Świdnik 3.09 · Draw 3.37 · Olimpia Grudziądz 2.12
    • Implied 1X2 · Avia Świdnik 29.6% · Draw 27.2% · Olimpia Grudziądz 43.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Avia Świdnik win · 4–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 87/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:49 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1451665

Closing Odds 2.12
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Avia Świdnik win · Avia Świdnik 4–1 Olimpia Grudziądz
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: II Liga - East
  • Fixture: Avia Świdnik vs Olimpia Grudziądz
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-26 14:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Avia Świdnik 1.21 — Olimpia Grudziądz 1.39 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming II Liga - East Matches Track Avia Świdnik Next Match Prediction Track Olimpia Grudziądz Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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II Liga - East II Liga - East — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 6 2 1 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 5 2 2 17
3 Tychy 71 9 4 5 0 17
4 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 4 4 1 16
5 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 5 1 3 16
6 Hutnik Kraków 9 4 3 2 15
7 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 4 3 2 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 4 2 3 14
9 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 4 2 3 14
10 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 3 3 3 12
11 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 3 3 3 12
12 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 3 1 5 10
13 Avia Świdnik 9 3 1 5 10
14 Legia Warszawa II 9 3 0 6 9
15 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 3 0 6 9
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 1 5 3 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 1 2 6 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 0 3 6 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Znicz Pruszków 9 19 10 +9 20
2 Górnik Łęczna 9 18 9 +9 17
3 Podhale Nowy Targ 9 18 17 +1 14
4 Legia Warszawa II 9 18 17 +1 9
5 Lechia Zielona Góra 9 17 15 +2 12
6 Zawisza Bydgoszcz 9 16 11 +5 16
7 Hutnik Kraków 9 16 11 +5 15
8 Chojniczanka Chojnice 9 16 14 +2 14
9 Śląsk Wrocław II 9 15 17 -2 9
10 Rekord Bielsko-Biała 9 14 9 +5 16
11 Stal Stalowa Wola 9 14 17 -3 10
12 Sandecja Nowy Sącz 9 13 8 +5 15
13 Tychy 71 9 12 6 +6 17
14 Avia Świdnik 9 12 16 -4 10
15 Olimpia Grudziądz 9 11 15 -4 12
16 Sokół Kleczew 9 10 21 -11 8
17 Świt Skolwin 9 9 23 -14 5
18 Resovia Rzeszów 9 6 18 -12 3
II Liga - East Poland. II Liga - East Predictions