Predictions / Football / Saudi-Arabia. King's Cup / Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab

Prediction Audit: Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Al Wehda Club Al Wehda Club
Aug 16, 2026 - 18:00
3 1.26
2 1.34
xG Accuracy: 85%
Al Shabab Al Shabab

The model missed the final outcome (Al Wehda Club win 3–2).

The model had projected Al Shabab at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Al Shabab Al Wehda Club ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Al Shabab higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Al Shabab -21.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Al Wehda Club 33.3% 19.9% +13.4 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 21.8% +7.9 pp Model Higher
Al Shabab 37.1% 58.3% -21.2 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Al Shabab's win probability at 58.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 37.1%, a difference of 21.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Al Wehda Club win 3–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Al Shabab; match finished Al Wehda Club

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Al Shabab by 21.2 percentage points (58.3% vs model 37.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Al Wehda Club 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Al Shabab 37.0%
    • xG · Al Wehda Club 1.26 — Al Shabab 1.34
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 17:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Al Wehda Club 4.65 · Draw 4.26 · Al Shabab 1.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Wehda Club 19.9% · Draw 21.8% · Al Shabab 58.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Al Wehda Club 4.65 · Draw 4.26 · Al Shabab 1.59
    • Implied 1X2 · Al Wehda Club 19.9% · Draw 21.8% · Al Shabab 58.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 18:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Al Wehda Club win · 3–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 52/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (21 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:52 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3613677

Closing Odds 1.59
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Al Wehda Club win · Al Wehda Club 3–2 Al Shabab
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: King's Cup
  • Fixture: Al Wehda Club vs Al Shabab
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 18:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
  • xG (showing): Al Wehda Club 1.26 — Al Shabab 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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