AI correctly predicted the FC Krasnodar win.
The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 FC Krasnodar FC Krasnodar ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow | 28.5% | 47.6% | -19.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 32.0% | 25.8% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| FC Krasnodar | 39.5% | 26.6% | +12.8 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Spartak Moscow's win probability at 47.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.5%, a difference of 19.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (FC Krasnodar win 1–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Spartak Moscow than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced FC Krasnodar higher (58.6% vs model 39.5%, 19.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (FC Krasnodar win 1–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Spartak Moscow 28.5% · Draw 32.0% · FC Krasnodar 39.5%
- xG · Spartak Moscow 1.01 — FC Krasnodar 1.23
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Moscow 2.03 · Draw 3.75 · FC Krasnodar 3.63
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Moscow 47.6% · Draw 25.8% · FC Krasnodar 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Spartak Moscow 2.03 · Draw 3.75 · FC Krasnodar 3.63
- Implied 1X2 · Spartak Moscow 47.6% · Draw 25.8% · FC Krasnodar 26.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 09, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result FC Krasnodar win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (19 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rubin | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Makhachkala | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Akhmat | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Akron | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 | Makhachkala | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 | Dynamo | 9 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Baltika | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Akhmat | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rubin | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Akron | 9 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
