The model missed the final outcome (Zenit win 0–3).
The model had projected FC Orenburg at 56.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 FC Orenburg Zenit ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-0, 1-1, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Orenburg | 56.6% | 10.2% | +46.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 25.1% | 17.9% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Zenit | 18.3% | 71.9% | -53.6 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Zenit's win probability at 71.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 18.3%, a difference of 53.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Zenit win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.86) — 3 goals materialised
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- 1X2: model leaned FC Orenburg; match finished Zenit
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on FC Orenburg by 53.6 percentage points (110.2% vs model 56.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · FC Orenburg 56.5% · Draw 25.1% · Zenit 18.3%
- xG · FC Orenburg 1.87 — Zenit 0.99
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 12:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · FC Orenburg 9.41 · Draw 5.38 · Zenit 1.34
- Implied 1X2 · FC Orenburg 10.2% · Draw 17.9% · Zenit 71.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · FC Orenburg 9.41 · Draw 5.38 · Zenit 1.34
- Implied 1X2 · FC Orenburg 10.2% · Draw 17.9% · Zenit 71.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Zenit win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (54 pp)
- Moderate model lean
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Dynamo | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Zenit | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | Rubin | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 7 | Makhachkala | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 8 | Baltika | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Akhmat | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Akron | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 18 |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 9 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 9 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 19 |
| 4 | Makhachkala | 9 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 12 |
| 5 | FC Krasnodar | 9 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 6 | Dynamo | 9 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Baltika | 9 | 14 | 12 | +2 | 11 |
| 8 | Akhmat | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 10 |
| 9 | Krylia Sovetov | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 11 |
| 10 | Rubin | 9 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 12 |
| 11 | Akron | 9 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 8 |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 9 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 |
| 13 | Rodina Moskva | 9 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 5 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 9 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | FC Orenburg | 9 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 9 |
| 16 | Fakel | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3 |
