The model missed the final outcome (Pohronie win 3–1).
The model had projected Tatran Prešov at 39.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Tatran Prešov Pohronie ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-1 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pohronie | 30.6% | 26.8% | +3.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.2% | +4.3 pp | Aligned |
| Tatran Prešov | 39.9% | 48.0% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Tatran Prešov's win probability at 48.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.9%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Pohronie win 3–1.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Tatran Prešov. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Tatran Prešov; match finished Pohronie
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Tatran Prešov by 8.1 percentage points (48.0% vs model 39.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Pohronie 30.6% · Draw 29.5% · Tatran Prešov 40.0%
- xG · Pohronie 1.20 — Tatran Prešov 1.40
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Pohronie 3.42 · Draw 3.64 · Tatran Prešov 1.91
- Implied 1X2 · Pohronie 26.8% · Draw 25.2% · Tatran Prešov 48.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Pohronie 3.42 · Draw 3.64 · Tatran Prešov 1.91
- Implied 1X2 · Pohronie 26.8% · Draw 25.2% · Tatran Prešov 48.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 28, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Pohronie win · 3–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. liga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petržalka | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 2 | Šamorín | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 27 |
| 3 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 4 | Žilina II | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Galanta | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 7 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 8 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14 |
| 9 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 10 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
| 12 | Malženice | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Humenné | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Šamorín | 10 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 27 |
| 2 | Petržalka | 10 | 20 | 6 | +14 | 27 |
| 3 | Inter Bratislava | 10 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 15 |
| 4 | Považská Bystrica | 10 | 20 | 17 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 | Pohronie | 10 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 16 |
| 6 | Liptovský Mikuláš | 10 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom | 10 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 |
| 8 | Slovan Bratislava II | 10 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Galanta | 10 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Malženice | 10 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | Žilina II | 9 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 16 |
| 12 | Tatran Prešov | 10 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Zlaté Moravce | 10 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | MFK Bytča | 10 | 8 | 28 | -20 | 6 |
| 15 | Lokomotíva Zvolen | 10 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 | Humenné | 9 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 7 |
