Prediction Audit: Šamorín vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Šamorín

Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00

0 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 56%

Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

The model missed the final outcome (Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win 0–2).

The model had projected Šamorín at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Šamorín Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Šamorín	38.5%	55.9%	-17.4 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	23.1%	+6.4 pp	Model Higher
Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	31.9%	21.0%	+11.0 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Šamorín's win probability at 55.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.5%, a difference of 17.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win 0–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Šamorín than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Šamorín; match finished Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Šamorín by 17.4 percentage points (55.9% vs model 38.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 15, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Šamorín 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 31.9%
- xG · Šamorín 1.37 — Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1.23
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Šamorín 1.64 · Draw 3.96 · Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 4.37
- Implied 1X2 · Šamorín 55.9% · Draw 23.1% · Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Šamorín 1.64 · Draw 3.96 · Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 4.37
- Implied 1X2 · Šamorín 55.9% · Draw 23.1% · Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (17 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100

Betting Confidence 43/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3358465

Closing Odds 1.64

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom win · Šamorín 0–2 Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: 2. liga
Fixture: Šamorín vs Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom
Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Šamorín 1.37 — Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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2. liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Petržalka	10	9	0	1	27
2	Šamorín	10	9	0	1	27
3	Považská Bystrica	10	6	1	3	19
4	Žilina II	9	5	1	3	16
5	Pohronie	10	5	1	4	16
6	Galanta	10	5	1	4	16
7	Inter Bratislava	10	4	3	3	15
8	Tatran Prešov	10	4	2	4	14
9	Liptovský Mikuláš	10	3	4	3	13
10	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	10	3	4	3	13
11	Zlaté Moravce	10	3	3	4	12
12	Malženice	10	3	1	6	10
13	Slovan Bratislava II	10	2	3	5	9
14	Humenné	9	2	1	6	7
15	MFK Bytča	10	2	0	8	6
16	Lokomotíva Zvolen	10	0	3	7	3

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Šamorín	10	22	10	+12	27
2	Petržalka	10	20	6	+14	27
3	Inter Bratislava	10	20	11	+9	15
4	Považská Bystrica	10	20	17	+3	19
5	Pohronie	10	16	15	+1	16
6	Liptovský Mikuláš	10	15	12	+3	13
7	Baník Lehota p.Vtáčnikom	10	15	16	-1	13
8	Slovan Bratislava II	10	14	16	-2	9
9	Galanta	10	13	14	-1	16
10	Malženice	10	13	15	-2	10
11	Žilina II	9	12	9	+3	16
12	Tatran Prešov	10	12	14	-2	14
13	Zlaté Moravce	10	10	9	+1	12
14	MFK Bytča	10	8	28	-20	6
15	Lokomotíva Zvolen	10	7	18	-11	3
16	Humenné	9	6	13	-7	7