Prediction Audit: Tillmitsch vs SKN ST. Polten Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Tillmitsch

Jul 24, 2026 - 17:30

1 1.27

2 1.33

xG Accuracy: 85%

SKN ST. Polten

AI correctly predicted the SKN ST. Polten win.

The match finished 1–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 SKN ST. Polten SKN ST. Polten ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-2 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Tillmitsch	24.2%	8.9%	+15.3 pp	Model Edge
Draw	25.7%	13.8%	+11.8 pp	Model Edge
SKN ST. Polten	50.1%	77.2%	-27.1 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates SKN ST. Polten's win probability at 77.2%, compared with the model's estimate of 50.1%, a difference of 27.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (SKN ST. Polten win 1–2).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
Exact score 1–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced SKN ST. Polten higher (77.2% vs model 50.1%, 27.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (SKN ST. Polten win 1–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 24, 2026 · 20:14 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Tillmitsch 24.2% · Draw 25.7% · SKN ST. Polten 50.0%
- xG · Tillmitsch 1.27 — SKN ST. Polten 1.33
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:04 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Tillmitsch 10.04 · Draw 6.48 · SKN ST. Polten 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · Tillmitsch 8.9% · Draw 13.8% · SKN ST. Polten 77.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Tillmitsch 10.04 · Draw 6.48 · SKN ST. Polten 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · Tillmitsch 8.9% · Draw 13.8% · SKN ST. Polten 77.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 24, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result SKN ST. Polten win · 1–2
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (27 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 13:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1453103

Closing Odds 1.16

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result SKN ST. Polten win · Tillmitsch 1–2 SKN ST. Polten

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

League: Austrian Cup
Fixture: Tillmitsch vs SKN St. Pölten
Kickoff: 2026-07-24 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
xG (showing): Tillmitsch 1.27 — SKN St. Pölten 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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