The model missed the final outcome (Melbourne City win 0–3).
The model had projected Weston Bears at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Weston Bears Melbourne City ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weston Bears | 39.5% | 10.0% | +29.5 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.5% | 11.6% | +17.9 pp | Model Edge |
| Melbourne City | 31.0% | 78.4% | -47.4 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Melbourne City's win probability at 78.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 31.0%, a difference of 47.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Melbourne City win 0–3.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Weston Bears by 47.4 percentage points (86.9% vs model 39.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 13:49 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Weston Bears 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Melbourne City 31.0%
- xG · Weston Bears 1.39 — Melbourne City 1.21
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 03:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Weston Bears 9.01 · Draw 7.75 · Melbourne City 1.16
- Implied 1X2 · Weston Bears 10.1% · Draw 11.7% · Melbourne City 78.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 03:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Weston Bears 9.21 · Draw 7.90 · Melbourne City 1.17
- Implied 1X2 · Weston Bears 10.0% · Draw 11.6% · Melbourne City 78.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 26, 2026 · 04:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Melbourne City win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (47 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotProbability Calibration
- Expected: 39.5%
- Historical Bucket: 35–40% — Building sample
Model Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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