Predictions / Football / Venezuela. Copa Venezuela / Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Caracas FC

Prediction Audit: Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Caracas FC Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fundación Lara Deportiva Fundación Lara Deportiva
Sep 09, 2026 - 21:30
0 1.31
5 1.29
xG Accuracy: 25%
Caracas FC Caracas FC

The model missed the final outcome (Caracas FC win 0–5).

The model had projected Fundación Lara Deportiva at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Fundación Lara Deportiva Caracas FC ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-5 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Caracas FC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Caracas FC -18.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fundación Lara Deportiva 35.6% 21.8% +13.8 pp Model Edge
Draw 29.6% 24.6% +5.0 pp Model Higher
Caracas FC 34.7% 53.6% -18.9 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Caracas FC's win probability at 53.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 18.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Caracas FC win 0–5.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Caracas FC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Fundación Lara Deportiva; match finished Caracas FC

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Fundación Lara Deportiva by 18.9 percentage points (54.5% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 09, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Caracas FC 34.7%
    • xG · Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.31 — Caracas FC 1.29
  2. Sep 09, 2026 · 20:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fundación Lara Deportiva 4.05 · Draw 3.59 · Caracas FC 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 21.8% · Draw 24.6% · Caracas FC 53.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 09, 2026 · 21:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fundación Lara Deportiva 4.05 · Draw 3.59 · Caracas FC 1.65
    • Implied 1X2 · Fundación Lara Deportiva 21.8% · Draw 24.6% · Caracas FC 53.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 09, 2026 · 21:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Caracas FC win · 0–5
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (19 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 1/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 25, 2026 · 00:14 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1659581

Closing Odds 1.65
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Caracas FC win · Fundación Lara Deportiva 0–5 Caracas FC
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Copa Venezuela
  • Fixture: Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Caracas FC
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-09 21:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): Fundación Lara Deportiva 1.31 — Caracas FC 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 45.6% · Probability edge: +6.2 pts · Est. EV: +8.8%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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Copa Venezuela Copa Venezuela — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 2 1 0 7
2 Atletico Avila FC 2 1 0 1 3
3 Petare FC 3 0 1 2 1
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Academia Anzoátegui 3 7 4 +3 7
2 Petare FC 3 3 5 -2 1
3 Atletico Avila FC 2 2 3 -1 3
4 Marítimo 0 0 0 0 0
Copa Venezuela Venezuela. Copa Venezuela Predictions