Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Fiorentina vs Gubbio

Prediction Audit: Fiorentina vs Gubbio Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fiorentina Fiorentina
Jul 22, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.40
0 1.20
xG Accuracy: 64%
Gubbio Gubbio

AI correctly predicted the Fiorentina win.

The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fiorentina Fiorentina ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Fiorentina higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Fiorentina -27.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fiorentina 55.8% 83.7% -27.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 23.5% 9.4% +14.1 pp Model Edge
Gubbio 20.7% 6.9% +13.8 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Fiorentina's win probability at 83.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 55.8%, a difference of 27.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Fiorentina win 1–0).

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Fiorentina higher (83.7% vs model 55.8%, 27.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Fiorentina win 1–0).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 22, 2026 · 19:40 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fiorentina 55.8% · Draw 23.5% · Gubbio 20.7%
    • xG · Fiorentina 1.40 — Gubbio 1.20
  2. Jul 22, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fiorentina 1.06 · Draw 9.42 · Gubbio 12.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Fiorentina 83.7% · Draw 9.4% · Gubbio 6.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 22, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fiorentina 1.06 · Draw 9.42 · Gubbio 12.87
    • Implied 1X2 · Fiorentina 83.7% · Draw 9.4% · Gubbio 6.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 22, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Fiorentina win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 49/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (28 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Moderate model lean
  • Market strongly disagrees on price
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Betting Confidence 31/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 30, 2026 · 03:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2489958

Closing Odds 1.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Fiorentina win · Fiorentina 1–0 Gubbio
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Fiorentina vs Gubbio
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-22 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.0% · Draw 33.0% · Away 33.0%
  • xG (showing): Fiorentina 1.4 — Gubbio 1.2 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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