Prediction Audit: Stade Brestois 29 vs Al Wakrah Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Stade Brestois 29

Jul 22, 2026 - 16:00

0 1.43

2 1.17

xG Accuracy: 54%

Al Wakrah

The model missed the final outcome (Al Wakrah win 0–2).

The model had projected Stade Brestois 29 at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Stade Brestois 29 Al Wakrah ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Stade Brestois 29	41.4%	77.1%	-35.7 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.4%	14.8%	+14.6 pp	Model Edge
Al Wakrah	29.2%	8.2%	+21.1 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates Stade Brestois 29's win probability at 77.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 35.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Al Wakrah win 0–2.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Stade Brestois 29; match finished Al Wakrah

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Stade Brestois 29 by 35.7 percentage points (77.1% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Jul 22, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Stade Brestois 29 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Al Wakrah 29.3%
- xG · Stade Brestois 29 1.43 — Al Wakrah 1.17
Jul 22, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Stade Brestois 29 1.15 · Draw 6.01 · Al Wakrah 10.87
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Brestois 29 77.1% · Draw 14.8% · Al Wakrah 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Stade Brestois 29 1.15 · Draw 6.01 · Al Wakrah 10.87
- Implied 1X2 · Stade Brestois 29 77.1% · Draw 14.8% · Al Wakrah 8.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Jul 22, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Al Wakrah win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 31/100 · Low

Validation: Fail
Large market gap (36 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market strongly disagrees on price
Validation failed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Monitoring Confidence 9/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 27, 2026 · 09:20 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5657757

Closing Odds 1.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Al Wakrah win · Stade Brestois 29 0–2 Al Wakrah

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Model favours Stade Brestois 29; market prices Stade Brestois 29 instead — inputs may be missing or stale.

Model: Stade Brestois 29 1.43 xG vs Al Wakrah 1.17 → Stade Brestois 29 41.4%
Market: Stade Brestois 29 ~77.1% implied
Validation failed — do not treat 1X2 EV as actionable.

Do not act on 1X2 value until validation passes. Structural leans (O/U, BTTS) need separate odds review.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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