Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow

Prediction Audit: Dynamo vs CSKA Moscow Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Dynamo Dynamo
Jul 18, 2026 - 16:00
5 1.23
2 1.37
xG Accuracy: 30%
CSKA Moscow CSKA Moscow

The model missed the final outcome (Dynamo win 5–2).

The model had projected CSKA Moscow at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 CSKA Moscow Dynamo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Draw +3.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Dynamo 31.9% 34.9% -3.0 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 26.3% +3.3 pp Aligned
CSKA Moscow 38.5% 38.8% -0.3 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Dynamo win 5–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned CSKA Moscow; match finished Dynamo

Market lesson

The full-time result was Dynamo win 5–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 18, 2026 · 20:48 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Dynamo 31.9% · Draw 29.6% · CSKA Moscow 38.5%
    • xG · Dynamo 1.23 — CSKA Moscow 1.37
  2. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Dynamo 2.67 · Draw 3.55 · CSKA Moscow 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Dynamo 34.9% · Draw 26.3% · CSKA Moscow 38.8%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  3. Jul 18, 2026 · 15:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Dynamo 2.67 · Draw 3.55 · CSKA Moscow 2.40
    • Implied 1X2 · Dynamo 34.9% · Draw 26.3% · CSKA Moscow 38.8%
    • Bookmaker · Marathonbet
  4. Jul 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Dynamo win · 5–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 83/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 24, 2026 · 20:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1640813

Closing Odds 3.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Dynamo win · Dynamo 5–2 CSKA Moscow
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Dynamo Moscow vs CSKA Moscow
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-18 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
  • xG (showing): Dynamo Moscow 1.23 — CSKA Moscow 1.37 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 22, 2026 (UTC)

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