Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Heart Of Midlothian vs Rayo Vallecano

Prediction Audit: Heart Of Midlothian vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian
Jul 17, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 73%
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano

The model missed the final outcome (Heart Of Midlothian win 2–1).

The model had projected Rayo Vallecano at 39.7%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Rayo Vallecano Heart Of Midlothian ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Rayo Vallecano +1.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Heart Of Midlothian 31.4% 32.4% -0.9 pp Aligned
Draw 28.8% 29.4% -0.6 pp Aligned
Rayo Vallecano 39.7% 38.2% +1.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Heart Of Midlothian win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Rayo Vallecano; match finished Heart Of Midlothian

Market lesson

The full-time result was Heart Of Midlothian win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 17, 2026 · 19:49 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Heart Of Midlothian 31.5% · Draw 28.8% · Rayo Vallecano 39.7%
    • xG · Heart Of Midlothian 1.22 — Rayo Vallecano 1.38
  2. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Heart Of Midlothian 2.67 · Draw 2.94 · Rayo Vallecano 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Heart Of Midlothian 32.4% · Draw 29.4% · Rayo Vallecano 38.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Heart Of Midlothian 2.67 · Draw 2.94 · Rayo Vallecano 2.26
    • Implied 1X2 · Heart Of Midlothian 32.4% · Draw 29.4% · Rayo Vallecano 38.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 17, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Heart Of Midlothian win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 92/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 23, 2026 · 22:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-1516825

Closing Odds 2.26
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Heart Of Midlothian win · Heart Of Midlothian 2–1 Rayo Vallecano
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Heart of Midlothian vs Rayo Vallecano
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-17 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 28.8% · Away 39.7%
  • xG (showing): Heart of Midlothian 1.22 — Rayo Vallecano 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Friendlies Clubs Matches Track Heart Of Midlothian Next Match Prediction Track Rayo Vallecano Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Heart Of Midlothian & Rayo Vallecano!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Friendlies Clubs World. Friendlies Clubs Predictions