Predictions / Football / World. Friendlies Clubs / Paks vs NK Slaven Belupo

Prediction Audit: Paks vs NK Slaven Belupo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Paks Paks
Jul 16, 2026 - 15:30
5 1.25
3 1.35
xG Accuracy: 23%
NK Slaven Belupo NK Slaven Belupo

The model missed the final outcome (Paks win 5–3).

The model had projected NK Slaven Belupo at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 NK Slaven Belupo Paks ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 5-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Paks higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Paks -8.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Paks 32.9% 40.9% -8.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 24.4% +5.2 pp Model Higher
NK Slaven Belupo 37.5% 34.7% +2.9 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Paks's win probability at 40.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 32.9%, a difference of 8.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Paks win 5–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Paks. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned NK Slaven Belupo; match finished Paks

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on NK Slaven Belupo by 8.1 percentage points (45.6% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Jul 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Paks 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · NK Slaven Belupo 37.6%
    • xG · Paks 1.25 — NK Slaven Belupo 1.35
  2. Jul 16, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Paks 2.17 · Draw 3.64 · NK Slaven Belupo 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Paks 40.9% · Draw 24.4% · NK Slaven Belupo 34.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Jul 16, 2026 · 15:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Paks 2.17 · Draw 3.64 · NK Slaven Belupo 2.56
    • Implied 1X2 · Paks 40.9% · Draw 24.4% · NK Slaven Belupo 34.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Jul 16, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Paks win · 5–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Jul 29, 2026 · 08:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2346070

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Paks win · Paks 5–3 NK Slaven Belupo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Club Friendlies
  • Fixture: Paks vs NK Slaven Belupo
  • Kickoff: 2026-07-16 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Paks 1.25 — NK Slaven Belupo 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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