The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Ferencvarosi TC at 44.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Ferencvarosi TC Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 44.8% | 70.6% | -25.7 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 28.9% | 16.9% | +12.1 pp | Model Edge |
| Ujpest | 26.2% | 12.5% | +13.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Ferencvarosi TC's win probability at 70.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.8%, a difference of 25.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Ferencvarosi TC by 25.7 percentage points (70.5% vs model 44.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Ferencvarosi TC 44.8% · Draw 29.0% · Ujpest 26.2%
- xG · Ferencvarosi TC 1.50 — Ujpest 1.10
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Ferencvarosi TC 1.34 · Draw 5.56 · Ujpest 7.45
- Implied 1X2 · Ferencvarosi TC 70.4% · Draw 17.0% · Ujpest 12.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Ferencvarosi TC 1.34 · Draw 5.60 · Ujpest 7.54
- Implied 1X2 · Ferencvarosi TC 70.6% · Draw 16.9% · Ujpest 12.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 06, 2026 · 15:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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NB I — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Vasas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Ujpest | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 5 | Ferencvarosi TC | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Paks | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 9 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vasas | 8 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 14 |
| 2 | Ujpest | 8 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 |
| 3 | Gyori ETO FC | 8 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 4 | Paks | 8 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 11 |
| 5 | MTK Budapest | 8 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 9 |
| 6 | Puskas Academy | 8 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 7 | Debreceni VSC | 8 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 9 |
| 8 | Ferencvarosi TC | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 9 | Budapest Honved | 7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Kisvarda FC | 8 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 9 |
| 11 | Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 12 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 8 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 6 |
